ALLE
Allegion plc$160.57
Hold
Target $177.93
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Security & Protection Services • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$160.57+10.8%
Rec: HoldConviction: High
Entry Target
$136.87
(15% below current)
Fair Value
$177.93
(11% above current)
Stop Loss
$116.57
(27% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$183.11
52 Week Low$116.57
Avg. 3 Month Volume887K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin45.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin24.7%
LTM EBIT Margin21.4%
LTM Operating Margin21.1%
LTM ROA12.9%
LTM ROE34.8%
LTM ROIC25.6%
LTM ROCE20.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$12.5B
Enterprise Value (MM)$14.1B
Shares Outstanding86.15M
Total Debt (MM)$1.98B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$356.20M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.62B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth7.8%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR7.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR13.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR13.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$185.00
LTM EV/Revenue3.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.7x
LTM EV/EBIT16.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA14.1x
LTM P/E19.4x
LTM EV/FCF20.6x
LTM P/FCF18.3x
LTM P/TB5.0x
LTM P/B6.1x
Dividend Yield1.4%
Payout Ratio27.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $160.57 versus fair value $177.93 (10.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Electronics revenue acceleration to mid-teens via SaaS integration from ELATEC/Gatewise acquisitions, validating moat durability and addressing market residential fears by highlighting 45.2% margins' resilience. Bear case centers on Prolonged U.S. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Half sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
45.2% gross margins exceed peer median by 13.1pp from pricing power/switching costs; electronics low-double-digits with mid-teens potential via SaaS; 122% FCF/net income, 19% ROIC >9.5% WACC sustains compounding.
Bear Case
Residential high-single-digit volume drop in Q4 FY2025 dragged margins; M&A effectiveness 0.2x on $1.7B spend risks integration; negative TBV -$7.79/share, intangibles 52% assets vulnerable to impairment.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Electronics revenue acceleration to mid-teens via SaaS integration from ELATEC/Gatewise acquisitions, validating moat durability and address...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Schlage Performance Series/Von Duprin 70 launches reinforce non-residential spec activity growth, shifting sentiment from headwind focus.
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Recent Q4 FY2025 residential miss and FY2026 guide (2-4% organic) create entry amid 10.8% undervaluation to $178 fair value.
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Prolonged U.S. residential softness erodes pricing power, deleveraging volumes and compressing Americas margins below 27.9%.
Concern: High
M&A integration failure on $630M FY2025 deals impairs goodwill ($2.7B intangibles), triggering write-downs.
Concern: Medium
Strong stewardship: 87.5% independent board with separate Chair/CEO; PSUs 50% TSR/50% EPS align with compounding; no proxy fights, clean rec...
Recent Activity
2026-02-14SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-9.38%Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management LLC reports 4.7% beneficial ownership of Allegion PLC shares
2025-07-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.03%Allegion PLC reports Q2 2025 financial results with record $1B+ revenue
2025-04-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.32%Allegion PLC reports Q1 2025 financial results with 21.3% EPS growth
2025-02-15SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-5.62%Boston Partners reports 5.24% beneficial ownership of Allegion PLC shares
2023-07-26SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.69%Allegion PLC reports Q2 2023 financial results with 18.0% revenue growth
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$142
Bear
$172
Base
$196
Bull
$161