AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.$207.32
Sell
Target $142.46
Report: Feb 20, 2026Technology • Semiconductors • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$207.32-31.3%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$142.46
(31% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$267.08
52 Week Low$76.48
Avg. 3 Month Volume37.32M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin49.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin21.3%
LTM EBIT Margin12.6%
LTM Operating Margin10.7%
LTM ROA5.8%
LTM ROE7.2%
LTM ROIC20.1%
LTM ROCE6.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$331.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$330.0B
Shares Outstanding1.63B
Total Debt (MM)$3.85B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$5.54B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-1.69B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth34.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR13.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR9.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR44.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$293.26
LTM EV/Revenue9.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit19.2x
LTM EV/EBIT75.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA44.8x
LTM P/E76.5x
LTM EV/FCF49.3x
LTM P/FCF49.5x
LTM P/TB9.5x
LTM P/B5.3x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $207.32 versus fair value $142.46 (-31.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Normalization of AI Capex: As hyperscalers transition to internal silicon (TPUs/Trainium), the demand for third-party accelerators will likely normalize, exposing AMD's high-cost structure. Bear case centers on Lower-for-longer cyclical downturn in the PC and Gaming markets. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Hyperscalers maintain 'Vendor Diversification' mandates to prevent an Nvidia monopoly, ensuring a floor for AMD's data center market share. The MI400 series launch could potentially close the performance gap with Nvidia's Blackwell architecture.
Bear Case
Operating expenses are growing faster than revenue (SG&A +49% vs Revenue +34.3%), indicating a loss of operating leverage. Export controls on high-end GPUs create a structural $1.5B annual revenue hole that cannot be easily filled by other regions.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Normalization of AI Capex: As hyperscalers transition to internal silicon (TPUs/Trainium), the demand for third-party accelerators will like...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
The primary value driver is the inevitable correction of a valuation that ignores AMD's inferior 10.7% operating margin relative to the 24.4...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Advanced Micro Devices is relevant for analysis at this moment due to the recent $1.5B export-control write-down and the stock's failure to...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-longer cyclical downturn in the PC and Gaming markets. These segments represent a significant portion of the revenue base and are...
Concern: Medium
A 'Deep Trough' scenario where export controls and a global recession compress margins to 7.5% and revenue growth to 15%. Applying a distres...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is currently rated as Strong but declining due to heavy insider selling and CEO duality. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1...
Recent Activity
2026-02-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.77%AMD and Meta announce expanded strategic partnership
2026-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-17.31%AMD reports record Q4 2025 revenue of $10.3B and full year 2025 revenue of $34.6B, driven by data center and client growth
2026-01-21SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.71%AMD appoints KC McClure to its board of directors
2025-12-19Analyst Target
+6.15%Firm: Truist Financial Analyst: William Stein Price Target: $277.00 Price When Posted: $201.06 Implied Upside: +37.8%
2025-11-12Analyst Target
+9.00%Firm: Bernstein Analyst: Stacy Rasgon Price Target: $200.00 Price When Posted: $237.52 Implied Downside: -15.8%
Valuation Table
9.5/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$76
Bear
$133
Base
$183
Bull
$207