ANET
Arista Networks, Inc.$133.50
Unclear
Target $140.26
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Computer Hardware • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$133.50+5.1%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$107.89
(19% below current)
Fair Value
$140.26
(5% above current)
Stop Loss
$112.43
(16% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$164.94
52 Week Low$59.43
Avg. 3 Month Volume7.90M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin64.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin48.0%
LTM EBIT Margin47.2%
LTM Operating Margin42.8%
LTM ROA20.5%
LTM ROE31.0%
LTM ROIC41.1%
LTM ROCE33.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$154.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$152.3B
Shares Outstanding1.26B
Total Debt (MM)$0.00M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.96B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-1.96B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth28.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR27.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR37.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR36.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$184.38
LTM EV/Revenue16.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit26.4x
LTM EV/EBIT35.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA35.2x
LTM P/E43.9x
LTM EV/FCF35.8x
LTM P/FCF36.3x
LTM P/TB8.1x
LTM P/B12.5x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $133.5 versus fair value $140.26 (5.1% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on AI center networking ramps to $3.25B in FY2026 as three of four large customers expand beyond 100,000 GPUs and the fourth migrates from InfiniBand, validating EOS differentiation in scale-out Ethernet and addressing market concerns on AI... Bear case centers on Customer concentration with two clients over 40% of $9.0B FY2025 revenue impairs thesis if ramps delay beyond 12-18 months acceptance criteria, slashing growth to peer 8.9% median. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
EOS switching costs sustain 41.1% ROIC and 64.1% gross margins as AI Ethernet adoption accelerates with $3.25B FY2026 AI centers and 150M ports shipped; 28.6% revenue growth to $9.0B outperforms peers by 20ppt; net cash $1.96B funds $1.6B buybacks reducing shares 0.42% CAGR.
Bear Case
Two customers exceed 40% of $9.0B FY2025 revenue risking volatility; net margins compressed 170bps to 39.0% from memory inflation and $131.6M inventory write-down; $1.09B insider sales across 389 transactions with zero buys signal caution; recent buybacks at 41x EV/EBITDA yielded -6.8% ROI.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
AI center networking ramps to $3.25B in FY2026 as three of four large customers expand beyond 100,000 GPUs and the fourth migrates from Infi...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Campus/branch revenue hits $1.25B in FY2026 via VeloCloud integration adding secure client-to-cloud, shifting sentiment from hardware pure-p...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Arista's relevance peaks now with FY2026 guidance raised to 25% growth on Q4 2025 earnings, AI Ethernet momentum amid NVIDIA InfiniBand shif...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Customer concentration with two clients over 40% of $9.0B FY2025 revenue impairs thesis if ramps delay beyond 12-18 months acceptance criter...
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion from NVIDIA Spectrum-X or InfiniBand persistence permanently impairs EOS pricing power, compressing ROIC below 40% to peer 23.2...
Concern: Medium
Supply chain disruption from Taiwan/China memory shortages erodes margins below 62-64% guide via cost absorption, mirroring $131.6M FY2025 i...
Recent Activity
2025-11-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.55%Arista Networks reports Q3 2025 financial results with 27.5% YoY revenue growth
2025-08-06SEC Filing (8-K)
+17.49%Arista Networks reports Q2 2025 financial results with 30.4% YoY revenue growth
2025-06-26Analyst Target
+5.48%Firm: KeyBanc Price Target: $115.00 Price When Posted: $96.31 Implied Upside: +19.4%
2025-06-17SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.69%Arista Networks appoints Todd Nightingale as President and COO
2025-06-03SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.26%Arista Networks 2025 Annual Meeting held with director elections and approvals
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$158
Base
$203
Bull
$134