ARES
Ares Management Corporation$133.97
Sell
Target $101.42
Report: Feb 19, 2026Financial Services • Asset Management • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$133.97-24.3%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$101.42
(24% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$195.26
52 Week Low$95.80
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.72M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin31.0%
LTM EBIT Margin26.7%
LTM Operating Margin15.9%
LTM ROA1.5%
LTM ROE9.7%
LTM ROIC4.4%
LTM ROCE5.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$24.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$36.9B
Shares Outstanding221.19M
Total Debt (MM)$14.22B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.45B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$12.77B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA7.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth44.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR22.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR17.8%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR24.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$179.25
LTM EV/Revenue6.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit6.6x
LTM EV/EBIT24.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA21.2x
LTM P/E56.6x
LTM EV/FCF11.5x
LTM P/FCF7.5x
LTM P/TB1.0x
LTM P/B5.6x
Dividend Yield4.1%
Payout Ratio266.7%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $133.97 versus fair value $101.42 (-24.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts Ares has a heavy concentration in floating-rate private credit. Bear case centers on Lower-for-Longer Interest Rates A prolonged period of low interest rates would structurally impair the yield on Ares' floating-rate credit portfolio, leading to a permanent reduction in performance fees and realized income. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Record fundraising of $113 billion in 2025 and 29% AUM growth provide a massive runway for fee-related earnings. The GCP acquisition transforms the real estate segment into a global leader with significant synergy potential.
Bear Case
Massive insider selling of $922 million suggests leadership sees a valuation ceiling. Eroding margins and a negative incremental ROIC of -34.5% indicate that recent growth is value-destructive.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts Ares has a heavy concentration in floating-rate private credit. Management has indicated that every 25 ba...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
GCP Integration Margin Compression The $3.7 billion GCP acquisition is currently compressing Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) margins, which fell...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Ares is relevant for analysis now because it is trading at a 32% premium to its fair value just as the macro environment for private credit...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-Longer Interest Rates A prolonged period of low interest rates would structurally impair the yield on Ares' floating-rate credit p...
Concern: High
Balance Sheet Leverage With $12.7 billion in debt and a Debt/Equity ratio of 371%, Ares lacks the balance sheet strength to survive a severe...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is cautious. While the board is experienced, the pro-cyclical nature of capital decisions and the overwhelming volum...
Recent Activity
2026-02-20Analyst Target
-5.15%Firm: UBS Price Target: $148.00 Price When Posted: $128.16 Implied Upside: +15.5%
2026-02-06Analyst Target
+7.05%Firm: Barclays Price Target: $190.00 Price When Posted: $121.87 Implied Upside: +55.9%
2026-02-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-11.19%Ares Management reports Q4 and full year 2025 financial results
2025-03-04Market Movement
-5.17%Market/Sector Move -5.17%
2024-08-02SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.64%Ares Management reports Q2 2024 financial results
Valuation Table
9.6/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$31
Bear
$61
Base
$91
Bull
$134