BA
The Boeing Company$224.06
Sell
Target $150.46
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Aerospace & Defense • Turnaround CandidateSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$224.06-32.8%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$150.46
(33% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$254.35
52 Week Low$128.88
Avg. 3 Month Volume7.49M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin4.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin8.2%
LTM EBIT Margin6.0%
LTM Operating Margin-6.0%
LTM ROA1.2%
LTM ROE-80.3%
LTM ROIC6.3%
LTM ROCE10.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$156.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$199.5B
Shares Outstanding785.35M
Total Debt (MM)$54.10B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$10.92B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$43.18B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA5.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth34.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR10.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$260.36
LTM EV/Revenue2.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit46.5x
LTM EV/EBIT36.9x
LTM EV/EBITDA27.1x
LTM P/E82.7x
LTM EV/FCF-111.1x
LTM P/FCF-87.1x
LTM P/TB1.0x
LTM P/B28.7x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $224.06 versus fair value $150.46 (-32.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on 777X Certification and First Delivery Successful certification would remove a major source of reach-forward losses ($5.3B in 2025) and validate the wide-body strategy. Bear case centers on Existential Liquidity and Solvency Risk The 'race against time' to ramp production before running out of cash or breaching covenants. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Record backlog of $567B providing multi-year revenue visibility; successful production ramp of the 737 to 42 aircraft per month; positive free cash flow inflection expected in 2026.
Bear Case
Extreme leverage with 992% Debt/Equity ratio; persistent 777X certification charges totaling $4.9B; significant shareholder dilution from massive equity issuances.
Key Catalysts
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: High
777X Certification and First Delivery Successful certification would remove a major source of reach-forward losses ($5.3B in 2025) and valid...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Spirit AeroSystems Integration Completing the integration is expected to improve supply chain quality and reduce factory rework, which was d...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Boeing is at a critical juncture following its FY 2025 earnings turnaround and massive equity raise, making the current valuation a test of...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Existential Liquidity and Solvency Risk The 'race against time' to ramp production before running out of cash or breaching covenants. Net de...
Concern: High
777X Program Failure Further delays in the 777X program could lead to additional multi-billion dollar charges and customer cancellations.
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is mixed. While the board has been refreshed with 9 of 12 directors added since 2019, including experts in aerospace...
Recent Activity
2025-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.32%Boeing reported Q3 2025 revenue of $23.3 billion with GAAP loss per share of ($7.14) and core loss per share of ($7.47), impacted by $4.9 billion 777X certification charge.
2025-04-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.00%Boeing reports Q1 2025 revenue of $19.5B with GAAP loss of $0.16 per share
2025-04-04SEC Filing (DEFA14A)
-9.49%Boeing 2025 proxy statement filed with executive compensation details
2024-08-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.45%Boeing reported Q2 2024 revenue of $16.9 billion with GAAP loss per share of ($2.33) and core loss per share of ($2.90), while announcing agreement to acquire Spirit AeroSystems.
2024-05-23Analyst Target
-7.55%Firm: CFRA Analyst: Stewart Glickman Price Target: $147.00 Price When Posted: $172.21 Implied Downside: -14.6%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$0
Bear
$175
Base
$228
Bull
$224