BA
The Boeing Company$224.06
Sell
Target $150.46
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Aerospace & Defense • Turnaround CandidateSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$224.06-32.8%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$150.46
(33% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$254.35
52 Week Low$176.77
Avg. 3 Month Volume6.71M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin4.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin8.0%
LTM EBIT Margin5.7%
LTM Operating Margin-5.9%
LTM ROA1.2%
LTM ROE-7396.2%
LTM ROIC6.3%
LTM ROCE9.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$182.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$220.1B
Shares Outstanding788.30M
Total Debt (MM)$47.21B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$9.44B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$37.77B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA5.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth32.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR9.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR118.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$262.00
LTM EV/Revenue2.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit49.8x
LTM EV/EBIT41.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA30.0x
LTM P/E94.8x
LTM EV/FCF-229.3x
LTM P/FCF-190.0x
LTM P/TB1.3x
LTM P/B30.5x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $224.06 versus fair value $150.46 (-32.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on 777X Certification and First Delivery Successful certification would remove a major source of reach-forward losses ($5.3B in 2025) and validate the wide-body strategy. Bear case centers on Existential Liquidity and Solvency Risk The 'race against time' to ramp production before running out of cash or breaching covenants. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Record backlog of $567B providing multi-year revenue visibility; successful production ramp of the 737 to 42 aircraft per month; positive free cash flow inflection expected in 2026.
Bear Case
Extreme leverage with 992% Debt/Equity ratio; persistent 777X certification charges totaling $4.9B; significant shareholder dilution from massive equity issuances.
Key Catalysts
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: High
777X Certification and First Delivery Successful certification would remove a major source of reach-forward losses ($5.3B in 2025) and valid...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Spirit AeroSystems Integration Completing the integration is expected to improve supply chain quality and reduce factory rework, which was d...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Boeing is at a critical juncture following its FY 2025 earnings turnaround and massive equity raise, making the current valuation a test of...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Existential Liquidity and Solvency Risk The 'race against time' to ramp production before running out of cash or breaching covenants. Net de...
Concern: High
777X Program Failure Further delays in the 777X program could lead to additional multi-billion dollar charges and customer cancellations.
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is mixed. While the board has been refreshed with 9 of 12 directors added since 2019, including experts in aerospace...
Recent Activity
2025-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.32%Boeing reported Q3 2025 revenue of $23.3 billion with GAAP loss per share of ($7.14) and core loss per share of ($7.47), impacted by $4.9 billion 777X certification charge.
2025-04-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.00%Boeing reports Q1 2025 revenue of $19.5B with GAAP loss of $0.16 per share
2025-04-04SEC Filing (DEFA14A)
-9.49%Boeing 2025 proxy statement filed with executive compensation details
2024-08-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.45%Boeing reported Q2 2024 revenue of $16.9 billion with GAAP loss per share of ($2.33) and core loss per share of ($2.90), while announcing agreement to acquire Spirit AeroSystems.
2024-05-23Analyst Target
-7.55%Firm: CFRA Analyst: Stewart Glickman Price Target: $147.00 Price When Posted: $172.21 Implied Downside: -14.6%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$0
Bear
$175
Base
$228
Bull
$224