BG
Bunge Global S.A.$116.67
Unclear
Target $127.88
Report: Mar 09, 2026Consumer Defensive • Agricultural Farm Products • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$116.67+9.6%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$98.37
(16% below current)
Fair Value
$127.88
(10% above current)
Stop Loss
$91.18
(22% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$131.50
52 Week Low$68.33
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.83M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin4.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin3.5%
LTM EBIT Margin2.5%
LTM Operating Margin1.8%
LTM ROA2.2%
LTM ROE6.1%
LTM ROIC5.3%
LTM ROCE7.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$24.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$39.1B
Shares Outstanding193.81M
Total Debt (MM)$15.86B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.34B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$14.51B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA6.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth32.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR1.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-4.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-21.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$126.17
LTM EV/Revenue0.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit11.5x
LTM EV/EBIT22.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA16.1x
LTM P/E30.2x
LTM EV/FCF-44.5x
LTM P/FCF-28.0x
LTM P/TB0.6x
LTM P/B1.5x
Dividend Yield1.7%
Payout Ratio39.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $116.67 versus fair value $127.88 (9.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Realization of 190 million USD in cost synergies. Bear case centers on Lower-for-longer cyclical downturn in crush margins. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The Viterra integration creates a global powerhouse with 190 million USD in cost synergies and a dominant 29 percent market share in key corridors. Feedstock control provides a structural margin advantage in the rapidly growing renewable diesel market.
Bear Case
High leverage (7.3x Net Debt/EBITDA) leaves the company vulnerable to a lower-for-longer cyclical downturn. Pro-cyclical capital allocation and negative free cash flow (879 million USD) suggest management is overextending during a period of margin compression.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Realization of 190 million USD in cost synergies. Management has indicated that synergy capture is tracking ahead of schedule, which should...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
U.S. Biofuel Policy Clarity (RVO/45Z). Regulatory certainty regarding renewable diesel feedstocks would likely trigger a sharp recovery in N...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Bunge is at a critical juncture following the July 2025 close of the Viterra merger; the market is currently digesting the 14.5 billion USD...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-longer cyclical downturn in crush margins. Excess global processing capacity or weak biofuel demand could keep margins at the curr...
Concern: Medium
Balance sheet strain and interest coverage. With 15.9 billion USD in total debt and interest expense rising 33 percent to 628 million USD, a...
Concern: Medium
The governance structure is currently in a Strategic Oversight phase following the Viterra merger. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1....
Recent Activity
2025-10-15SEC Filing (8-K)
+12.96%Bunge announces segment changes and recasts full-year 2025 adjusted EPS outlook to $7.30-$7.60
2025-07-30SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.19%Bunge reports Q2 2025 GAAP EPS of $2.61 vs $0.48 prior year, maintains $7.75 adjusted EPS outlook
2025-06-14SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.98%Bunge Global SA and designated sellers amend Business Combination Agreement, setting July 2, 2025 closing date
2025-06-13SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.69%Bunge extends exchange offers and consent solicitations for Viterra notes to July 3, 2025
2025-04-04Market Movement
-6.39%Market/Sector Move -6.39%
Valuation Table
9.5/10Decision Grade