BRO
Brown & Brown, Inc.$71.85
Unclear
Target $71.64
Report: Mar 09, 2026Financial Services • Insurance - Brokers • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$71.85-0.3%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$55.11
(23% below current)
Fair Value
$71.64
(0% below current)
Stop Loss
$52.82
(26% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$125.68
52 Week Low$63.29
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.47M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin34.3%
LTM EBIT Margin28.0%
LTM Operating Margin28.7%
LTM ROA4.1%
LTM ROE9.7%
LTM ROIC20.6%
LTM ROCE9.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$22.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$29.0B
Shares Outstanding340.42M
Total Debt (MM)$7.86B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.08B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$6.78B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth22.8%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR18.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR18.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR12.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$88.50
LTM EV/Revenue4.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.9x
LTM EV/EBIT17.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA14.3x
LTM P/E21.1x
LTM EV/FCF20.8x
LTM P/FCF16.0x
LTM P/TB2.2x
LTM P/B1.8x
Dividend Yield1.0%
Payout Ratio18.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $71.85 versus fair value $71.64 (-0.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Realization of Accession Synergies: Management has targeted $30-40 million in EBITDA synergies for 2026. Bear case centers on Talent Poaching and Cultural Erosion: The loss of key producers to competitors like Howden directly impairs organic growth and can lead to a 'death spiral' if compensation costs must be raised across the board to retain staff. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The company's ROIC of 20.6% remains nearly 14 percentage points above the peer median, indicating a superior business model. Furthermore, the integration of Accession is expected to yield $30-40 million in EBITDA synergies by 2026, which could restore operating margins toward the historical 30% level.
Bear Case
Aggressive M&A has led to significant shareholder dilution, with the share count increasing 20.8% over the last five years. Additionally, the company's negative tangible book value of -$7.4 billion and rising interest expenses (up to $297 million in 2025) create a fragile capital structure if organic growth continues to slow below 3%.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Realization of Accession Synergies: Management has targeted $30-40 million in EBITDA synergies for 2026. Successful execution would validate...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Stabilization of Organic Growth: A re-acceleration of organic growth toward the 5% historical average would shift market sentiment from bear...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Brown & Brown is at a critical juncture as it integrates its largest acquisition in company history while simultaneously defending its domes...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Talent Poaching and Cultural Erosion: The loss of key producers to competitors like Howden directly impairs organic growth and can lead to a...
Concern: High
Integration Failure of Accession: Failure to realize the $30-40 million in synergies would leave the company with a permanently lower margin...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is positive but cautious regarding dilution. The Brown family's significant stake aligns them with long-term compoun...
Recent Activity
2026-01-27SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.91%Brown & Brown, Inc. reports Q4 2025 revenues of $1.6 billion, up 35.7%, with diluted net income per share of $0.59
2025-10-28SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.13%Brown & Brown, Inc. reports Q3 2025 revenues of $1.6 billion, up 35.4%, with diluted net income per share of $0.68
2025-07-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.40%Brown & Brown reports Q2 2025 financial results with 9.1% revenue growth
2025-04-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.00%Brown & Brown reports Q1 2025 financial results with 11.6% revenue growth
2024-07-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.25%Brown & Brown reports Q2 2024 financial results with 12.5% revenue growth
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$54
Bear
$99
Bull
$72