CB
Chubb Limited$326.90
Sell
Target $267.24
Report: Mar 09, 2026Financial Services • Insurance - Property & Casualty • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$326.90-18.3%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$267.24
(18% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$345.67
52 Week Low$264.10
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.75M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin45.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin23.2%
LTM EBIT Margin22.7%
LTM Operating Margin23.2%
LTM ROA3.9%
LTM ROE14.7%
LTM ROIC5.3%
LTM ROCE5.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$127.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$145.7B
Shares Outstanding390.16M
Total Debt (MM)$20.97B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.47B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$18.50B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth6.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR11.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR23.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR27.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$342.00
LTM EV/Revenue2.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.3x
LTM EV/EBIT10.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA10.6x
LTM P/E12.3x
LTM EV/FCF11.4x
LTM P/FCF9.9x
LTM P/TB0.5x
LTM P/B1.7x
Dividend Yield1.2%
Payout Ratio14.7%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $326.9 versus fair value $267.24 (-18.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Normalization of Underwriting Margins As the P&C cycle softens, the record-low combined ratios currently enjoyed by Chubb are likely to revert toward historical averages. Bear case centers on Continued 'Golden Age' Underwriting Performance If the current favorable pricing environment persists longer than anticipated, Chubb could continue to report record margins, delaying the expected valuation de-rating. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Record underwriting profitability with a combined ratio of 81.2% and a 33-year streak of dividend increases. Strong institutional backing, highlighted by Berkshire Hathaway's 8.8% stake and a 25.7% increase in tangible book value per share in 2025.
Bear Case
Fundamental value destruction with ROIC at 4.0% versus a 9.5% cost of capital. Aggressive insider selling totaling $87.1 million net over the past year, signaling management's view on current valuation.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Normalization of Underwriting Margins As the P&C cycle softens, the record-low combined ratios currently enjoyed by Chubb are likely to reve...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Regulatory Scrutiny on Personal Lines Profitability Potential 'excess profit' regulations in key markets could cap the profitability of Chub...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Chubb is relevant for analysis now because it is trading at peak multiples following record underwriting results, creating a high-probabilit...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Continued 'Golden Age' Underwriting Performance If the current favorable pricing environment persists longer than anticipated, Chubb could c...
Concern: High
Berkshire Hathaway Acquisition or Increased Stake Berkshire Hathaway currently holds an 8.8% stake ($6.7 billion). An announcement of a full...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is Adequate. While the board is highly independent and features deep financial expertise (e.g., Audit Chair Robert S...
Recent Activity
2026-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.13%Chubb Limited reported Q4 2025 net income of $3.21 billion, up 24.7%, with record full-year net income of $10.31 billion, up 11.2%
2023-07-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.30%Chubb Limited reported Q2 2023 net income of $1.79 billion, up 50.7%, with record core operating income of $2.04 billion, up 13.9%
2023-02-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.18%Chubb Limited reported Q4 2022 net income of $1.31 billion, down 38.7%, with full-year net income of $5.31 billion, down 37.8%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$268
Bear
$333
Base
$371
Bull
$327