CBOE
Cboe Global Markets, Inc.$301.27
Hold
Target $332.97
Report: Mar 09, 2026Financial Services • Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$301.27+10.5%
Rec: HoldConviction: High
Entry Target
$256.13
(15% below current)
Fair Value
$332.97
(11% above current)
Stop Loss
$217.53
(28% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$305.68
52 Week Low$200.88
Avg. 3 Month Volume894K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin51.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin36.9%
LTM EBIT Margin34.3%
LTM Operating Margin31.1%
LTM ROA12.1%
LTM ROE22.9%
LTM ROIC68.9%
LTM ROCE24.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$29.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$28.8B
Shares Outstanding104.70M
Total Debt (MM)$1.56B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.22B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-652.70M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth15.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR6.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR38.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR68.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$289.00
LTM EV/Revenue6.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit11.8x
LTM EV/EBIT17.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA16.5x
LTM P/E26.9x
LTM EV/FCF17.1x
LTM P/FCF17.5x
LTM P/TB6.1x
LTM P/B5.7x
Dividend Yield1.0%
Payout Ratio25.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $301.27 versus fair value $332.97 (10.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Launch of Securities-Based Prediction Markets: Cboe plans to launch index-based binary options in Q2 2026, leveraging the existing SPX ecosystem to capture the growing demand for event-based trading. Bear case centers on Regulatory Intervention in 0DTE Markets: The SEC or other regulators could impose volume caps or margin requirements on short-dated options to mitigate perceived systematic risk, which would directly impair Cboe's highest-growth segment. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Half sizing and Long-Term (3+ Years) horizon.
Bull Case
Dominant position in the 0DTE options market (61% of SPX volume) drives high-margin growth; DataVantage recurring revenue (9% growth) provides a valuation floor; Net-cash balance sheet ($652.7M) supports aggressive buybacks and dividends.
Bear Case
Extreme revenue concentration in options (60% of net revenue) creates regulatory vulnerability; SEC fee cap litigation (Case No. 24-1350) threatens transaction margins; Negative incremental ROIC (-180.3%) suggests recent reinvestments have been sub-par.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Launch of Securities-Based Prediction Markets: Cboe plans to launch index-based binary options in Q2 2026, leveraging the existing SPX ecosy...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Expansion of 24/5 Trading Hours: The rollout of 24/5 trading for U.S. equities (EDGX) is planned for late November 2026, aimed at capturing...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Cboe is at a critical juncture as it completes its strategic realignment and transitions to a new leadership team, making the next 12 months...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Regulatory Intervention in 0DTE Markets: The SEC or other regulators could impose volume caps or margin requirements on short-dated options...
Concern: High
Adverse Outcome in SEC Fee Cap Litigation: An unfavorable ruling in Case No. 24-1350 regarding industry-wide fee caps could permanently comp...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, characterized by a clear succession plan and a board with deep industry expertise, including former CFOs from CME Gro...
Recent Activity
2022-07-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.55%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Exhibit 99.1 1 of 12 News Release Page 1 of 14 Cboe Global Markets Reports Results for Second Quarter 2022 Second Quarter Highlights* ● Diluted EPS for the Quarter of $(1.74), Down 278 percent, primarily due to the...
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$218
Bear
$347
Bull
$301