CNC
Centene Corporation$43.28
Unclear
Target $102.08
Report: Mar 08, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Healthcare Plans • Turnaround CandidateSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$43.28+135.9%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Low
Entry Target
$78.52
(81% above current)
Fair Value
$102.08
(136% above current)
Stop Loss
$25.08
(42% below current)
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$66.03
52 Week Low$25.08
Avg. 3 Month Volume6.68M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin7.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin-2.4%
LTM EBIT Margin-3.1%
LTM Operating Margin-3.9%
LTM ROA-8.0%
LTM ROE-27.7%
LTM ROIC-21.7%
LTM ROCE-13.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$16.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$15.6B
Shares Outstanding491.53M
Total Debt (MM)$17.40B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$17.89B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-487.00M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth19.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR10.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$44.90
LTM EV/Revenue0.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit1.1x
LTM EV/EBIT-2.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA-3.3x
LTM P/E-2.4x
LTM EV/FCF3.6x
LTM P/FCF3.7x
LTM P/TB0.3x
LTM P/B0.8x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $43.28 versus fair value $102.08 (135.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is insufficiently stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Medicaid Rate Advocacy Success: The realization of the 5.5% composite rate increase across key states like Florida and New York is critical to offsetting medical cost inflation. Bear case centers on Existential Liquidity and Solvency Risk: The 'race against time' where medical cost inflation outpaces rate increases, leading to a covenant breach or a junk downgrade by S&P. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Successful Medicaid rate advocacy securing 5.5% increases will restore margins; $5.1 billion in operating cash flow provides a massive liquidity cushion; deep valuation discount relative to peers offers 100%+ upside on recovery.
Bear Case
Persistent medical cost inflation in behavioral health could outpace rate increases; a potential S&P downgrade to junk status would increase capital costs; ongoing securities litigation creates a significant legal overhang.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Medicaid Rate Advocacy Success: The realization of the 5.5% composite rate increase across key states like Florida and New York is critical...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Marketplace Repricing: Full repricing of the Marketplace book to account for higher morbidity and the expiration of EAPTCs.
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Centene is relevant at this moment because it has just base-lined its earnings expectations with a massive impairment, and the Q4 FY2025 res...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Existential Liquidity and Solvency Risk: The 'race against time' where medical cost inflation outpaces rate increases, leading to a covenant...
Concern: Medium
Securities Fraud Litigation: The Lunstrum v. Centene class action could lead to significant legal settlements or discovery of further operat...
Concern: Medium
The governance outcome tree suggests three paths: 1. Status Quo, where the current plan restores EPS to >$3.00 by 2026; 2. Compromise, where...
Recent Activity
2025-10-30Analyst Target
-6.21%Firm: Goldman Sachs Analyst: Scott Fidel Price Target: $38.00 Price When Posted: $37.34 Implied Upside: +1.8%
2025-10-29SEC Filing (8-K)
+12.50%Centene reports Q3 2025 results with $6.7 billion goodwill impairment and raised full-year guidance.
2025-09-11SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.99%Centene Corporation to present at Deutsche Bank 2025 Healthcare Summit
2025-08-15SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.79%Director Thomas R. Greco resigns from Centene Corporation's Board effective August 22, 2025
2025-07-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.09%Centene reports Q2 2025 results with diluted loss per share of $(0.51)
Valuation Table
5.1/10Directional
Scenario Range
$62
Bear
$156
Base
$206
Bull
$43