DASH
DoorDash, Inc.$177.75
Unclear
Target $160.77
Report: Mar 07, 2026Communication Services • Internet Content & Information • Early-Stage HypergrowthSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$177.75-9.6%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$123.67
(30% below current)
Fair Value
$160.77
(10% below current)
Stop Loss
$142.20
(20% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional (12-24 Months)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$285.50
52 Week Low$143.30
Avg. 3 Month Volume5.01M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin50.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin13.2%
LTM EBIT Margin6.9%
LTM Operating Margin5.3%
LTM ROA5.5%
LTM ROE10.2%
LTM ROIC25.1%
LTM ROCE8.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$65.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$63.9B
Shares Outstanding432.64M
Total Debt (MM)$3.29B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$4.65B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-1.36B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth27.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR27.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$257.65
LTM EV/Revenue4.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit9.2x
LTM EV/EBIT67.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA35.3x
LTM P/E69.8x
LTM EV/FCF35.0x
LTM P/FCF35.7x
LTM P/TB5.5x
LTM P/B6.5x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $177.75 versus fair value $160.77 (-9.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Deliveroo Integration Milestones Management has targeted a $200M EBITDA contribution from Deliveroo in 2026. Bear case centers on Execution failure in non-restaurant verticals. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
1. Accelerated cross-category penetration with 30% of U.S. users now ordering non-restaurant items, driving higher order frequency and LTV. 2. High-margin advertising revenue is scaling rapidly, decoupling profit growth from pure delivery volume. 3. Deliveroo integration is expected to add $200M in EBITDA in 2026, providing a clear path to international profitability.
Bear Case
1. Gross margin expansion is slowing, rising only 2.6 points despite a 27.9% revenue jump, suggesting cost inflation and regulatory fee pressure. 2. Intense competition from Amazon and Walmart in grocery may force permanent margin compression. 3. Massive 2026 tech-stack and autonomy investments create significant execution risk and near-term earnings drag.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Deliveroo Integration Milestones Management has targeted a $200M EBITDA contribution from Deliveroo in 2026. Successful quarterly progress t...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Critical
Grocery Segment Unit-Positivity The grocery vertical is currently a drag on margins. Achieving unit-economic positivity in H2 2026 will prov...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
DoorDash is at a critical inflection point following the Deliveroo acquisition and a swing to GAAP profitability, making the next 12 months...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Execution failure in non-restaurant verticals. If the company fails to achieve product-market fit at scale in grocery, the 'Hypergrowth' pre...
Concern: Medium
Regulatory and labor cost inflation. Mandatory minimum pay laws in major markets like NYC and Seattle could force permanent margin compressi...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is rated as 'Adequate.' The board is elite, featuring Sequoia's Alfred Lin and Tesla's Milan Kovac, providing strong oversight f...
Recent Activity
2026-02-18SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.80%DoorDash reports Q4 2025 financial results with 38% revenue growth and $213M net income
2025-11-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-17.45%DoorDash reports Q3 2025 financial results with strong growth and announces Deliveroo acquisition.
2025-08-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.00%DoorDash reports Q2 2025 financial results with record revenue and announces acquisitions
2025-05-07SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-6.90%Vanguard Group increased its stake in DoorDash to 10%.
2025-05-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.44%DoorDash announces agreement to acquire Deliveroo for £2.9 billion
Valuation Table
9.7/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$99
Bear
$147
Base
$192
Bull
$178