DXCM
DexCom, Inc.$68.10
Unclear
Target $74.52
Report: Mar 10, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Devices • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$68.10+9.4%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$57.32
(16% below current)
Fair Value
$74.52
(9% above current)
Stop Loss
$54.11
(21% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$89.98
52 Week Low$54.11
Avg. 3 Month Volume4.98M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin60.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin29.1%
LTM EBIT Margin23.7%
LTM Operating Margin19.6%
LTM ROA12.0%
LTM ROE32.4%
LTM ROIC22.4%
LTM ROCE28.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$24.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$24.6B
Shares Outstanding386.60M
Total Debt (MM)$1.34B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$917.70M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$418.20M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth15.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR17.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR33.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR34.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$85.82
LTM EV/Revenue5.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit8.8x
LTM EV/EBIT22.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA18.1x
LTM P/E28.9x
LTM EV/FCF22.8x
LTM P/FCF22.4x
LTM P/TB3.9x
LTM P/B8.8x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $68.1 versus fair value $74.52 (9.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on CMS Coverage Decision for Type 2 Non-Insulin Patients. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion via Pricing Pressure. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The Stelo platform unlocks a massive TAM of pre-diabetics and health-conscious consumers; CMS coverage expansion for Type 2 non-insulin patients provides a multi-year growth tailwind; operating margins expand toward 23% as the Ireland facility ramps and freight costs normalize.
Bear Case
GLP-1 therapies significantly reduce the long-term need for CGM in Type 2 patients; Abbott Laboratories' aggressive pricing forces annual price cuts of 2-3%, permanently compressing gross margins; high R&D and CapEx requirements for next-gen sensors limit free cash flow growth.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
CMS Coverage Decision for Type 2 Non-Insulin Patients. This is the single most important event for the next 24 months. A positive decision w...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
G7 15-Day Sensor Broad Rollout. The transition from a 10-day to a 15-day sensor improves the customer experience and carries higher margins...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
DexCom is at a critical juncture as it moves past the 2024 sales disruptions and begins to realize the benefits of its massive capital inves...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion via Pricing Pressure. Abbott Laboratories' FreeStyle Libre 3 is a formidable low-cost competitor. If DexCom is forced to match...
Concern: Medium
GLP-1 Disruption. If GLP-1 drugs lead to widespread diabetes remission or significantly reduced need for glucose monitoring, the total addre...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong but alignment is moderate. The board is highly independent and features significant financial expertise, including thr...
Recent Activity
2026-02-13SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.59%Dexcom reported Q4 2025 and full-year 2025 results with 13% Q4 revenue growth and 16% full-year growth.
2025-10-31SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-14.63%Vanguard Group reports 12.61% beneficial ownership of DexCom common stock
2025-07-31SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.31%Dexcom reported Q2 2025 revenue of $1.157 billion, up 15% year-over-year, and announced CEO succession plan.
2025-05-02SEC Filing (8-K)
+16.17%Dexcom reports Q1 2025 financial results with 12% revenue growth and announces $750M buyback
2025-04-24SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+5.86%BlackRock reports 8.3% beneficial ownership of DexCom
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$45
Bear
$62
Base
$76
Bull
$68