EBAY
eBay Inc.$91.03
Unclear
Target $82.70
Report: Mar 13, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Specialty Retail • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$91.03-9.2%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Low
Entry Target
$63.62
(30% below current)
Fair Value
$82.70
(9% below current)
Stop Loss
$57.47
(37% below current)
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
Strategic
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$101.15
52 Week Low$58.71
Avg. 3 Month Volume5.26M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin71.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin27.0%
LTM EBIT Margin23.3%
LTM Operating Margin20.5%
LTM ROA11.2%
LTM ROE42.7%
LTM ROIC20.2%
LTM ROCE20.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$40.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$46.0B
Shares Outstanding453.00M
Total Debt (MM)$7.06B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.87B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$5.19B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth7.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR4.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR35.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR56.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$99.20
LTM EV/Revenue4.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.8x
LTM EV/EBIT17.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA15.3x
LTM P/E20.1x
LTM EV/FCF32.1x
LTM P/FCF28.4x
LTM P/TB3.1x
LTM P/B8.8x
Dividend Yield1.3%
Payout Ratio26.1%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $91.03 versus fair value $82.7 (-9.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Depop Synergies and Accretion Management expects Depop to add 1-2% to GMV growth in 2026 and become EPS accretive by 2028. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion from Low-Cost Competitors Platforms like Temu and Shein could permanently impair eBay's pricing power and buyer base, leading to stagnant GMV and margin compression. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Focus categories and AI tools drive sustainable 7-8% revenue growth; aggressive buybacks continue to provide a floor for EPS; Depop integration successfully captures the Gen Z market.
Bear Case
Moat erosion from Temu/Shein forces permanent margin compression; negative incremental ROIC (-1.7%) indicates value destruction; aggressive insider selling signals a lack of confidence in the current valuation.
Key Catalysts
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Depop Synergies and Accretion Management expects Depop to add 1-2% to GMV growth in 2026 and become EPS accretive by 2028. Successful integr...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Agentic Commerce Monetization The rollout of a unified agentic commerce platform integrating 30 years of data could significantly reduce tra...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
eBay is currently at a critical juncture as it laps pandemic-era growth and faces new competitive threats from Chinese cross-border platform...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion from Low-Cost Competitors Platforms like Temu and Shein could permanently impair eBay's pricing power and buyer base, leading t...
Concern: Medium
Negative Incremental ROIC The company's recent reinvestments are not generating returns above the cost of capital, which could lead to long-...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is rated as Strong in terms of board oversight and structural governance, but Weak in terms of management's personal alignment....
Recent Activity
2025-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-15.88%eBay Inc. reports Q3 2025 financial results with revenue growth and strong operational performance
2025-07-31SEC Filing (8-K)
+18.30%eBay Inc. reports Q2 2025 financial results with revenue growth and strong margins
2025-02-27SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.19%eBay reports Q4 2024 results with revenue up 1% to $2.6 billion and EPS of $1.40
2025-01-09Analyst Target
-5.04%Firm: Morgan Stanley Analyst: Nathan Feather Price Target: $70.00 Price When Posted: $63.17 Implied Upside: +10.8%
2024-10-31SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.17%eBay Inc. reports Q3 2024 financial results with revenue growth and strong margins
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$57
Bear
$75
Base
$88
Bull
$91