ES
Eversource Energy$73.85
Unclear
Target $67.67
Report: Mar 10, 2026Utilities • Regulated Electric • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$73.85-8.4%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$52.05
(30% below current)
Fair Value
$67.67
(8% below current)
Stop Loss
$52.00
(30% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Strategic (2-3 Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$76.41
52 Week Low$52.28
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.67M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin45.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin34.3%
LTM EBIT Margin22.7%
LTM Operating Margin22.1%
LTM ROA2.7%
LTM ROE10.7%
LTM ROIC3.8%
LTM ROCE5.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$26.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$56.0B
Shares Outstanding375.51M
Total Debt (MM)$30.11B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$135.35M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$29.98B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA6.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth13.8%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR3.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR7.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR4.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$73.14
LTM EV/Revenue4.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit9.1x
LTM EV/EBIT18.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.1x
LTM P/E15.4x
LTM EV/FCF-1241.6x
LTM P/FCF-576.9x
LTM P/TB0.4x
LTM P/B1.6x
Dividend Yield4.3%
Payout Ratio65.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $73.85 versus fair value $67.67 (-8.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Closing of the Aquarion Water Sale The sale of the water distribution business for $1.6 billion is critical for deleveraging the balance sheet and improving the FFO-to-debt ratio, which is currently testing credit rating thresholds. Bear case centers on Regulatory Misalignment in Connecticut Persistent hostility from PURA could lead to lower-than-authorized ROEs and delays in cost recovery for major capital projects like AMI. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The $26.5 billion five-year capital plan provides a clear path to 5-7% annual EPS growth through rate-base expansion. Electrification-driven load growth is accelerating, with peak demand recently exceeding 12 GW. The 4.1% dividend yield is well-covered by regulated cash flows.
Bear Case
High leverage, evidenced by a 6.5x Net Debt/EBITDA ratio, leaves little room for operational error. Persistent regulatory hostility in Connecticut could delay cost recoveries and force dilutive equity issuances of up to $1.1 billion. Operating expenses grew 32% YoY in FY 2025, outpacing revenue growth.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Closing of the Aquarion Water Sale The sale of the water distribution business for $1.6 billion is critical for deleveraging the balance she...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Critical
Connecticut Storm Cost Securitization The securitization of $1.5 billion in deferred storm costs would provide a significant cash infusion,...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Eversource is relevant for analysis now as it approaches a critical decision date for the Aquarion sale in March 2026, which will serve as a...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Regulatory Misalignment in Connecticut Persistent hostility from PURA could lead to lower-than-authorized ROEs and delays in cost recovery f...
Concern: Medium
High Leverage and Financing Risk With a 6.5x Net Debt/EBITDA ratio, the company is vulnerable to rising interest rates and may be forced int...
Concern: Medium
The governance structure is adequate but lacks the independence typically seen in top-tier utilities. The combined Chairman/CEO role and low...
Recent Activity
2025-11-19Analyst Target
-12.45%Firm: Wells Fargo Price Target: $63.00 Price When Posted: $65.26 Implied Downside: -3.5%
2024-01-09SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.75%Eversource Energy expects to record $1.4-$1.6 billion impairment charge on offshore wind investments in Q4 2023.
2023-11-14SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.03%Eversource Energy issued $800 million in 5.95% Senior Notes due 2029 under a new indenture.
Valuation Table
8.1/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$0
Bear
$68
Base
$80
Bull
$74