EXPD
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.$145.63
Sell
Target $121.22
Report: Mar 08, 2026Industrials • Integrated Freight & Logistics • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$145.63-16.8%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$121.22
(17% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$167.19
52 Week Low$100.47
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.56M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin33.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin10.4%
LTM EBIT Margin9.9%
LTM Operating Margin9.5%
LTM ROA16.9%
LTM ROE35.6%
LTM ROIC52.7%
LTM ROCE39.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$19.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$18.4B
Shares Outstanding134.20M
Total Debt (MM)$570.59M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.31B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-743.70M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth4.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-13.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-15.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-10.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$140.13
LTM EV/Revenue1.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.0x
LTM EV/EBIT16.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA16.0x
LTM P/E23.6x
LTM EV/FCF19.3x
LTM P/FCF20.1x
LTM P/TB3.9x
LTM P/B8.1x
Dividend Yield1.1%
Payout Ratio25.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $145.63 versus fair value $121.22 (-16.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Execution of the $3 billion share repurchase program. Bear case centers on Lower-for-longer cyclical downturn in global trade. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Aggressive $3 billion buyback program could reduce share count by another 15% at current prices; AI-driven logistics demand may create a structural 'Super-Cycle' for high-touch freight services.
Bear Case
Valuation at 24.0x P/E is a 33% premium to historical averages despite compressing margins; SG&A inflation (up 80 bps to 17.7%) is eroding the benefits of a cyclical volume recovery.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Execution of the $3 billion share repurchase program. This addresses market concerns about capital efficiency by utilizing excess cash to ag...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Inflection in ocean freight volumes. A turn from the 6% decline seen in Q4 2025 would validate the cyclical recovery thesis and support high...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Expeditors is relevant at this moment because it is trading at a multi-year peak valuation (24.0x P/E) just as it authorizes a massive $3 bi...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-longer cyclical downturn in global trade. Prolonged softness in ocean and air volumes would impair the company's ability to levera...
Concern: Medium
Geopolitical and trade disruptions. Increased U.S. tariffs or regional conflicts (Red Sea, Ukraine) could structurally increase transit cost...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is exceptional, characterized by a fortress balance sheet and a disciplined focus on returning capital to shareholders. The boar...
Recent Activity
2026-02-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.22%Expeditors International reports Q4 2025 EPS of $1.49, down 11% year-over-year
2025-11-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.84%Expeditors International reports Q3 2025 EPS of $1.64, up 1% year-over-year
2025-05-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.00%Expeditors International reports Q1 2025 EPS of $1.47, up 26% year-over-year
2022-11-08SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.06%Expeditors International reports Q3 2022 EPS of $2.54, up 22% year-over-year
2022-05-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.95%Expeditors International reports Q1 2022 EPS of $2.05, up 23% year-over-year
Valuation Table
9.7/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$87
Bear
$110
Base
$130
Bull
$146