F
Ford Motor Company$12.81
Buy
Target $22.51
Report: Mar 08, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Auto - Manufacturers • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$12.81+75.7%
Rec: BuyConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$12.81
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$22.51
(76% above current)
Stop Loss
$8.44
(34% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Transitional (12-24 Months)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$14.80
52 Week Low$8.44
Avg. 3 Month Volume64.48M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin0.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin-1.5%
LTM EBIT Margin-5.7%
LTM Operating Margin-4.9%
LTM ROA-2.8%
LTM ROE-18.9%
LTM ROIC-3.4%
LTM ROCE-5.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$45.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$185.9B
Shares Outstanding3.98B
Total Debt (MM)$163.34B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$23.36B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$139.98B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-50.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth1.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR5.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$13.38
LTM EV/Revenue1.0x
LTM EV/Gross Profit110.7x
LTM EV/EBIT-17.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA-67.3x
LTM P/E-5.6x
LTM EV/FCF14.9x
LTM P/FCF3.7x
LTM P/TB0.2x
LTM P/B1.3x
Dividend Yield6.5%
Payout Ratio-36.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $12.81 versus fair value $22.51 (75.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Novelis Fire Recovery and Volume Makeup Ford is adding shifts at the Dearborn and Kentucky plants to recover 50,000 units of F-Series production lost to the aluminum shortage. Bear case centers on Lower-for-Longer Cyclical Downturn A prolonged macro slowdown could keep industry SAAR below 16M units, preventing Ford from achieving the capacity utilization needed to reach its 5% margin target. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Half sizing and Transitional (12-24 Months) horizon.
Bull Case
Ford Pro is a structural cash cow with 20% EBIT margins and a growing software base that provides a valuation floor. The recovery from the Novelis fire and tariff normalization in 2026 will provide a $2B EBIT tailwind, driving a rapid mean reversion.
Bear Case
Model e losses of $4-4.5B annually are a permanent drag on capital, and the 454% debt-to-equity ratio leaves no room for error in a macro downturn. Industry-leading warranty costs suggest deep-seated execution issues.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Novelis Fire Recovery and Volume Makeup Ford is adding shifts at the Dearborn and Kentucky plants to recover 50,000 units of F-Series produc...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Ford Pro Software Monetization The expansion of the software subscriber base to over 1 million users will shift the segment's margin profile...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Ford is relevant at this moment because it is trading at a 0.2x Price-to-Tangible-Book multiple, a level historically associated with the ab...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Lower-for-Longer Cyclical Downturn A prolonged macro slowdown could keep industry SAAR below 16M units, preventing Ford from achieving the c...
Concern: High
Model e Capital Drain Continued multi-billion dollar losses in the EV segment could force a credit rating downgrade to junk, significantly i...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is a 'Stable Continuity' with a family-led floor. The Governance Outcome Tree is as follows: 1. Status Quo: The Ford...
Recent Activity
2025-10-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+12.16%Ford reports Q3 2025 financial results with record revenue and strong cash flow despite tariff headwinds.
2025-02-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.49%Excerpt: (EX-99) exhibit99tofebruary52025 For news releases, related materials and high-resolution photos and video, visit www.media.ford.com. News Ford Announces Key Leadership Changes · Sherry House named Ford’s chief financial officer...
2024-10-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.44%Ford reports Q3 2024 results with $892M net income and declares 15 cent dividend
2024-07-25SEC Filing (8-K)
-18.36%Ford reports Q2 2024 results with strong performance in Ford Pro segment and improved quality metrics
2024-02-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.05%Ford reports 2023 financial results with $4.3 billion net income and declares dividends
Valuation Table
9.2/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$5
Bear
$35
Base
$51
Bull
$13