FCX
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.$63.01
Sell
Target $39.88
Report: Mar 11, 2026Basic Materials • Copper • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$63.01-36.7%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$39.88
(37% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$69.75
52 Week Low$27.66
Avg. 3 Month Volume20.52M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin28.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin27.2%
LTM EBIT Margin18.5%
LTM Operating Margin25.2%
LTM ROA3.9%
LTM ROE12.0%
LTM ROIC8.5%
LTM ROCE9.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$84.5B
Enterprise Value (MM)$90.8B
Shares Outstanding1.44B
Total Debt (MM)$10.39B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$4.05B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$6.33B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth1.8%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR4.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-5.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-14.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$61.88
LTM EV/Revenue3.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit12.4x
LTM EV/EBIT18.9x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.9x
LTM P/E38.3x
LTM EV/FCF56.0x
LTM P/FCF52.1x
LTM P/TB1.5x
LTM P/B4.5x
Dividend Yield1.0%
Payout Ratio39.7%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $63.01 versus fair value $39.88 (-36.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Grasberg Underground Restart The full restart of the Grasberg underground operations is scheduled for Q2 2026. Bear case centers on Geopolitical and Regulatory Risk in Indonesia The Indonesian government may use the recent safety incidents and mud-rush at Grasberg as leverage to demand an equity stake beyond the current 51% or impose higher export duties. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The 'AI Red Gold' super-cycle could drive copper demand to a 10 million metric ton deficit by 2040, benefiting FCX as a primary U.S. producer. Additionally, the leach initiative offers a low-cost pathway to add 800M lbs of capacity without the risks of greenfield development.
Bear Case
Operational fragility at Grasberg and a 35% production cut for 2026 will severely impair cash flow. Furthermore, the company's operating margin of 25.2% is 2,280 basis points below the peer median, indicating a lack of structural cost advantage.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Grasberg Underground Restart The full restart of the Grasberg underground operations is scheduled for Q2 2026. This is critical to restoring...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Leach Additive Field Trials Field trials for proprietary leaching additives at Morenci are expected to conclude in 2026. Success here would...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Freeport-McMoRan is at a critical juncture as the market's enthusiasm for the copper super-cycle collides with the reality of a 35% producti...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Geopolitical and Regulatory Risk in Indonesia The Indonesian government may use the recent safety incidents and mud-rush at Grasberg as leve...
Concern: Medium
Operational Fragility and Mud-Rush Recurrence The Grasberg mine is susceptible to further mud-rush incidents, which could lead to permanent...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is cautious due to the ongoing leadership transition during an operational crisis. The Governance Outcome Tree sugge...
Recent Activity
2025-10-10Press Release
-5.61%Freeport Announces Third-Quarter 2025 Reporting Schedule And Conference Call Plans
2025-10-08Analyst Target
+5.31%Firm: Morgan Stanley Price Target: $46.00 Price When Posted: $40.69 Implied Upside: +13.0%
2025-09-25Analyst Target
-6.19%Firm: Raymond James Analyst: Brian MacArthur Price Target: $46.00 Price When Posted: $37.67 Implied Upside: +22.1%
2025-09-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-16.95%Freeport provides update on PT Freeport Indonesia incident
2025-09-09SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.94%Unavailable
Valuation Table
9.6/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$31
Bear
$52
Base
$68
Bull
$63