FF
FutureFuel Corp.$3.76
Hold
Target $4.58
Report: Feb 23, 2026Basic Materials • Chemicals • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$3.76+21.8%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$3.52
(6% below current)
Fair Value
$4.58
(22% above current)
Stop Loss
$3.09
(18% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$4.94
52 Week Low$3.09
Avg. 3 Month Volume406K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin-41.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin-41.2%
LTM EBIT Margin-51.3%
LTM Operating Margin-55.3%
LTM ROA-23.5%
LTM ROE-28.6%
LTM ROIC-48.1%
LTM ROCE-25.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$168.9M
Enterprise Value (MM)$117.6M
Shares Outstanding44.04M
Total Debt (MM)$0.00M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$51.32M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-51.32M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-60.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-37.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target PriceN/A
LTM EV/Revenue1.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit-3.0x
LTM EV/EBIT-2.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA-3.0x
LTM P/E-3.4x
LTM EV/FCF-2.6x
LTM P/FCF-3.7x
LTM P/TB0.9x
LTM P/B1.1x
Dividend Yield6.2%
Payout Ratio-21.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $3.76 versus fair value $4.58 (21.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Implementation of the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. Bear case centers on Regulatory 'Lower-for-Longer' Trough. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Transitional horizon.
Bull Case
The 45Z tax credit provides a structural margin tailwind starting in 2025; the 85.6M cash balance (52% of market cap) allows for opportunistic buybacks or M&A; insider buying of 206,500 by the CEO and directors signals a valuation floor.
Bear Case
The 'subsidy cliff' from the expired 1.00 biodiesel credit may permanently impair independent producers; persistent negative free cash flow (36.8M TTM) threatens the sustainability of the 0.24 annual dividend; ongoing litigation creates a persistent valuation overhang.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Implementation of the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. This regulatory shift replaces the blenders tax credit and is expected to provide a...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Achievement of positive operating margins in the Chemicals segment. Expanding the specialty chemicals business to 10% of total sales would v...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
FutureFuel is relevant at this moment because it is trading at a multi-year trough valuation (0.8x Tangible Book) just as the regulatory env...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Regulatory 'Lower-for-Longer' Trough. The mechanism is a delay or structural weakness in the 45Z credit implementation that fails to offset...
Concern: Medium
Single-Site Operational Risk. With 100% of manufacturing concentrated in Batesville, Arkansas, any extreme weather event or equipment failur...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is mixed. While the board is highly independent and features elite capital markets expertise (Ronald Kruszewski of S...
Recent Activity
2025-12-11SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.81%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Exhibit 99.1 December 10, 2025 COMPANY CONTACT : Future Fuel Corp. Roeland Polet (870) 698-5608 www.futurefuelcorporation.com Future Fuel Corp. Declares First Quarter 2026 Cash Dividend; Extends Share...
2025-11-11SEC Filing (8-K)
-11.34%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) ex_856002.htm Exhibit 99.1 November 10, 2025 COMPANY CONTACT Future Fuel Corp. Roeland Polet (870) 698-5608 www.futurefuelcorporation.com Future Fuel Releases Third Quarter 2025 Results Reports Net...
2025-03-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.25%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) ex_748950.htm Exhibit 99.1 March 28, 2025 COMPANY CONTACT Future Fuel Corp. Roeland Polet (314) 854-8352 www.futurefuelcorporation.com Future Fuel Releases 2024 Results Reports Net Income of $15.5...
2025-03-14SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.05%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) ex_789656.htm Exhibit 99.1 March 13, 2025 COMPANY CONTACT Future Fuel Corp. Roeland Polet (314) 854-8352 www.futurefuelcorporation.com Future Fuel to Delay Release of 2024 Financial Results CLAYTON,...
2025-02-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.89%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) ex_773212.htm Exhibit 99.1 January 31, 2025 COMPANY CONTACT Future Fuel Corp. Roeland Polet (314) 854-8352 www.futurefuelcorporation.com Future Fuel Announces Certain Matters with Respect to Its...
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade