GEV
GE Vernova Inc.$792.49
Sell
Target $425.69
Report: Mar 11, 2026Utilities • Renewable Utilities • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$792.49-46.3%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$425.69
(46% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$1,181.95
52 Week Low$357.64
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.68M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin19.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin21.4%
LTM EBIT Margin18.9%
LTM Operating Margin3.9%
LTM ROA15.2%
LTM ROE88.0%
LTM ROIC114.4%
LTM ROCE34.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$301.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$293.7B
Shares Outstanding269.00M
Total Debt (MM)$2.81B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$10.17B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-7.37B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth10.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$1,119.95
LTM EV/Revenue7.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit37.4x
LTM EV/EBIT39.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA34.8x
LTM P/E32.1x
LTM EV/FCF38.1x
LTM P/FCF39.1x
LTM P/TB4.9x
LTM P/B21.6x
Dividend Yield0.1%
Payout Ratio4.3%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $792.49 versus fair value $425.69 (-46.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Wind Segment Earnings Miss The market expects a rapid narrowing of Wind losses. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion and Pricing Pressure GE Vernova's gross margins are significantly lower than peers. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Proponents argue that GE Vernova is the primary beneficiary of a generational electrification supercycle, with data center power demand driving a 34% YoY increase in orders to $59 billion. They point to the $150.2 billion backlog as a guarantee of multi-year revenue visibility and margin expansion.
Bear Case
The bear case centers on structural unprofitability in the Wind segment, which continues to lose $600 million annually, and a valuation that requires 60x EBITDA for a business with 19.8% gross margins. Critics also flag the $13.5 million in recent insider sales as a sign that management views the stock as overvalued.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Wind Segment Earnings Miss The market expects a rapid narrowing of Wind losses. A failure to reduce the $600 million EBITDA loss in upcoming...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Prolec GE Integration Update The $5.3 billion acquisition is a major capital commitment. Any disclosure of integration delays or lower-than-...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
GE Vernova is at a critical juncture following its first full year as a standalone company, with the stock trading at all-time highs despite...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion and Pricing Pressure GE Vernova's gross margins are significantly lower than peers. If the current high-demand environment soft...
Concern: Medium
Offshore Wind Liabilities The Vineyard Wind blade failure could lead to systemic warranty claims and debris cleanup costs that exceed curren...
Concern: Medium
The governance structure is robust, but the lack of 'skin in the game' is a significant red flag. We outline the following Governance Outcom...
Recent Activity
2025-12-10Analyst Target
+15.62%Firm: BMO Capital Analyst: Ameet Thakkar Price Target: $780.00 Price When Posted: $625.30 Implied Upside: +24.7%
2025-11-19Press Release
+7.29%Ge Vernova Secures First Onshore Wind Repower Upgrade Contract Outside The United States With Taiwan Power Company
2025-10-13Analyst Target
+7.23%Firm: Susquehanna Analyst: Charles Minervino Price Target: $740.00 Price When Posted: $628.36 Implied Upside: +17.8%
2025-07-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+14.58%GE Vernova reports strong Q2 2025 results, raises full-year guidance
2025-04-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.26%GE Vernova reports strong Q1 2025 financial results with revenue growth and margin expansion
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$201
Bear
$300
Base
$365
Bull
$792