GPC
Genuine Parts Company$116.42
Unclear
Target $110.61
Report: Mar 07, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Specialty Retail • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$116.42-5.0%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$85.08
(27% below current)
Fair Value
$110.61
(5% below current)
Stop Loss
$104.01
(11% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$151.57
52 Week Low$96.08
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.65M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin36.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin3.1%
LTM EBIT Margin0.9%
LTM Operating Margin4.0%
LTM ROA0.3%
LTM ROE1.4%
LTM ROIC1.8%
LTM ROCE2.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$14.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$20.6B
Shares Outstanding138.90M
Total Debt (MM)$6.54B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$477.18M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$6.06B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA8.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth3.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR3.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-27.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-61.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$141.75
LTM EV/Revenue0.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit2.3x
LTM EV/EBIT95.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA27.3x
LTM P/E220.7x
LTM EV/FCF43.6x
LTM P/FCF30.8x
LTM P/TB0.9x
LTM P/B3.3x
Dividend Yield3.9%
Payout Ratio876.6%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $116.42 versus fair value $110.61 (-5.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on 2027 Corporate Separation: The tax-free split into Global Automotive and Global Industrial will allow the market to value the Industrial segment (Motion) as a standalone entity, which historically commands higher multiples than consolida... Bear case centers on EV Adoption and Moat Erosion: Electric vehicles require 30% fewer aftermarket parts. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The 2027 separation will allow the Industrial segment (Motion) to be valued as a high-growth automation play, while the Automotive segment benefits from a modernized, company-owned store base. Furthermore, the aging U.S. vehicle fleet (average age 12.5 years) provides a non-discretionary demand floor for NAPA parts.
Bear Case
Accelerating EV adoption threatens 30% of the aftermarket parts basket (e.g., spark plugs, oil filters, transmissions). Additionally, the company's 4.0x net leverage and 1.3x interest coverage limit its ability to fund the $450M-$500M annual CapEx required for modernization without further straining the balance sheet.
Key Catalysts
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Critical
2027 Corporate Separation: The tax-free split into Global Automotive and Global Industrial will allow the market to value the Industrial seg...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Restructuring Benefit Realization: The 'One GPC' initiative is targeted to deliver over $200M in annualized savings by 2026. This is critica...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Genuine Parts is relevant now because the stock is trading near its 3-year low of $104.01 following a massive earnings collapse, creating a...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
EV Adoption and Moat Erosion: Electric vehicles require 30% fewer aftermarket parts. As fleet and retail consumers transition to EVs, the de...
Concern: Medium
Financial Leverage and Interest Coverage: With $6.5B in debt and a 147.8% debt-to-equity ratio, GPC's interest coverage has fallen to 1.3x....
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is adequate but not exceptional. While the board is strong and independent, including financial experts like ex-GM C...
Recent Activity
2025-07-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.60%Genuine Parts Company reported Q2 2025 results and revised full-year outlook downward due to tariff impacts and market conditions.
2024-10-22SEC Filing (8-K)
-20.97%Genuine Parts reports Q3 2024 results below expectations and revises full-year guidance downward.
2024-04-18SEC Filing (8-K)
+11.22%Genuine Parts reports Q1 2024 results with 0.3% sales growth and updates full-year guidance.
2023-10-19SEC Filing (8-K)
-12.51%Genuine Parts reports Q3 2023 results with double-digit earnings growth and updates full-year guidance.
2023-07-20SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.68%Genuine Parts reports Q2 2023 results with record sales and raises full-year earnings guidance.
Valuation Table
9.5/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$87
Bear
$151
Base
$207
Bull
$116