GS
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.$833.81
Sell
Target $426.67
Report: Mar 13, 2026Financial Services • Financial - Capital Markets • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$833.81-48.8%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$426.67
(49% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$984.70
52 Week Low$439.38
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.47M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin41.2%
LTM EBIT Margin37.5%
LTM Operating Margin37.5%
LTM ROA0.9%
LTM ROE13.1%
LTM ROIC0.9%
LTM ROCE1.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$251.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$1,010.4B
Shares Outstanding307.00M
Total Debt (MM)$923.56B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$164.26B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$759.30B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA31.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth8.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR7.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR14.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR19.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$915.15
LTM EV/Revenue17.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit17.3x
LTM EV/EBIT46.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA42.0x
LTM P/E15.4x
LTM EV/FCF-21.8x
LTM P/FCF-5.4x
LTM P/TB0.1x
LTM P/B2.0x
Dividend Yield1.7%
Payout Ratio27.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $833.81 versus fair value $426.67 (-48.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Normalization of Investment Banking Activity As the current peak in deal-making activity subsides, the firm's ability to generate the fees necessary to service its 923.6 billion USD debt load will be tested, likely leading to a re-rating... Bear case centers on Lower-for-Longer Cyclical Downturn A prolonged drought in M&A and IPO activity would prevent the firm from achieving its durable growth targets, forcing a de-leveraging of the balance sheet at trough prices. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Proponents argue that AI-driven productivity gains and the scaling of the Asset & Wealth Management segment to 30% margins will drive a permanent upward shift in ROE. They also point to a record investment banking backlog and a reopening IPO window as catalysts for sustained revenue growth.
Bear Case
The bear case centers on the firm's negative cash conversion ratio of -2.6x and its 739% debt-to-equity ratio. Critics argue that earnings are being artificially inflated by debt-funded buybacks and that the firm's 0.7% ROIC indicates a failure to create value above its cost of capital.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Normalization of Investment Banking Activity As the current peak in deal-making activity subsides, the firm's ability to generate the fees n...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Widening of Credit Spreads Given the firm's 739% debt-to-equity ratio, any increase in the cost of debt will disproportionately impact its a...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Goldman Sachs is relevant for analysis now because it is trading near all-time highs while its underlying cash flow has turned sharply negat...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-Longer Cyclical Downturn A prolonged drought in M&A and IPO activity would prevent the firm from achieving its durable growth targ...
Concern: High
Balance Sheet Fragility The firm's extreme leverage (739% debt-to-equity) makes it highly sensitive to interest rate volatility and credit m...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is mixed. While the board possesses deep financial expertise-with directors like Thomas Montag and David Viniar prov...
Recent Activity
2025-01-15SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.02%Goldman Sachs reports full year 2024 earnings with $40.54 EPS and record revenues
2024-11-06SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+13.10%Goldman Sachs Group and affiliates file Schedule 13G/A for 115 shares of Silk Road Medical Inc, owning 0.0% of class
2024-08-02SEC Filing (SC 13D/A)
-5.89%Goldman Sachs entities amend Schedule 13D filing for Mirion Technologies, reducing beneficial ownership from 7.1% to 4.7% after share distributions
2023-01-14SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.44%Goldman Sachs announces business segment restructuring effective Q4 2022
2022-10-04Market Movement
+5.25%Market/Sector Move +5.25%
Valuation Table
8.0/10Decision Grade