HAL
Halliburton Company$33.97
Sell
Target $27.77
Report: Mar 11, 2026Energy • Oil & Gas Equipment & Services • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$33.97-18.3%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$27.77
(18% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$41.18
52 Week Low$18.72
Avg. 3 Month Volume15.66M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin15.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin14.7%
LTM EBIT Margin9.5%
LTM Operating Margin10.2%
LTM ROA5.1%
LTM ROE12.4%
LTM ROIC9.2%
LTM ROCE10.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$32.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$38.6B
Shares Outstanding841.00M
Total Debt (MM)$8.13B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.21B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$5.93B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-3.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR3.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-1.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-4.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$35.23
LTM EV/Revenue1.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit11.1x
LTM EV/EBIT18.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA11.9x
LTM P/E25.5x
LTM EV/FCF20.8x
LTM P/FCF17.6x
LTM P/TB1.5x
LTM P/B3.1x
Dividend Yield1.7%
Payout Ratio45.3%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $33.97 versus fair value $27.77 (-18.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Q1 2026 Earnings Release: Management has already guided for a 7-9% sequential revenue decline in the C&P segment and a 300 basis point margin drop. Bear case centers on International Super-cycle Upside: A structural shortage in global oil supply could drive international drilling activity significantly higher than our 4% base case, allowing Halliburton to raise prices and expand margins. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
International 'Super-cycle' demand from LNG and deepwater projects in Brazil and Guyana offsets North American weakness; Zeus electric fleets achieve >50% utilization, driving premium pricing and margin expansion.
Bear Case
U.S. shale activity continues to decline, leading to further fleet stacking and pricing erosion; SAP migration costs and cybersecurity remediation permanently impair the cost structure; Insider selling signals that the cyclical peak is already behind us.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Q1 2026 Earnings Release: Management has already guided for a 7-9% sequential revenue decline in the C&P segment and a 300 basis point margi...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
SAP Migration Completion and Cost Realization: The company is spending $40-45M per quarter on SAP. If the promised $100M in annual savings d...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Halliburton is relevant now because the stock has decoupled from its fundamental earnings power, trading at a 22.3x P/E despite a 49% declin...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
International Super-cycle Upside: A structural shortage in global oil supply could drive international drilling activity significantly highe...
Concern: Low
Short Squeeze: With short interest rising to 4.6% of the float and 3.0 days to cover, a positive macro shock could trigger a technical rally...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is 'Weak Alignment.' While the board is structurally independent and includes industry heavyweights like Abdulaziz A...
Recent Activity
2025-10-21SEC Filing (8-K)
+11.58%Halliburton reports Q3 2025 net income of $0.02 per share on $5.6 billion revenue
2025-04-22SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.57%Halliburton reports Q1 2025 net income of $0.24 per share on $5.4 billion revenue
2025-04-17SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+5.13%BlackRock, Inc. beneficially owns 8.1% of Halliburton common stock
2025-04-04Market Movement
-10.76%Market/Sector Move -10.76%
2024-07-19SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.60%Halliburton reports Q2 2024 net income of $0.80 per share on $5.8 billion revenue
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$17
Bear
$35
Bull
$34