HOLX
Hologic, Inc.$75.75
Unclear
Target $72.97
Report: Mar 11, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Instruments & Supplies • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$75.75-3.7%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$56.13
(26% below current)
Fair Value
$72.97
(4% below current)
Stop Loss
$51.90
(31% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$75.78
52 Week Low$51.90
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.76M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin51.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin26.0%
LTM EBIT Margin18.8%
LTM Operating Margin17.5%
LTM ROA6.1%
LTM ROE11.0%
LTM ROIC17.8%
LTM ROCE9.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$16.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$17.2B
Shares Outstanding224.41M
Total Debt (MM)$2.52B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.17B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$352.30M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth2.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-2.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-14.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-15.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$77.80
LTM EV/Revenue4.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit8.1x
LTM EV/EBIT22.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA16.1x
LTM P/E31.0x
LTM EV/FCF18.3x
LTM P/FCF17.9x
LTM P/TB3.4x
LTM P/B3.2x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $75.75 versus fair value $72.97 (-3.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Rollout of Genius Digital Diagnostics and AI-enabled imaging software. Bear case centers on Permanent impairment of the China business and geopolitical tariff escalation. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Dominant 3D mammography market share and a high-margin recurring revenue stream from 3,400+ Panther systems; successful tariff mitigation expected to restore margin stability; AI-enabled product launches (Genius AI) driving diagnostic utilization.
Bear Case
Collapse of the China business (down 50% YoY) and USAID funding cuts for HIV testing; significant margin compression (operating margin down 450 bps); litigation and regulatory risks surrounding the Blackstone take-private deal and product recalls.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Rollout of Genius Digital Diagnostics and AI-enabled imaging software. This addresses market concerns regarding the saturation of the 3D mam...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Resolution of the Blackstone/TPG take-private transaction and associated litigation. Closing the deal or a price bump would validate the com...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Hologic is at a critical juncture as it navigates a transition from a COVID-19 testing giant to a private-equity-owned 'Cannibal' compounder...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Permanent impairment of the China business and geopolitical tariff escalation. This risk impairs the thesis by removing a key growth engine...
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion in Breast Health due to capital sales softness and product recalls. The voluntary recall of Brevera needles (4.7% of segment re...
Concern: Medium
The governance outlook is dominated by the 'Outcome Tree' of the Blackstone/TPG acquisition: 1. Status Quo: The deal closes at the rumored $...
Recent Activity
2025-05-02SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.45%Hologic reports Q2 FY2025 revenue of $1.005B, GAAP EPS ($0.08), Non-GAAP EPS $1.03, maintains annual revenue guidance but lowers EPS guidance.
2025-02-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.10%Hologic reports Q1 fiscal 2025 results in line with guidance, lowers full-year revenue outlook
2024-11-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.88%Hologic reports Q4 FY2024 revenue of $987.9M, GAAP EPS $0.76, Non-GAAP EPS $1.01, with 4.5% revenue growth and strong margin expansion.
2023-11-10SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.34%Hologic reports Q4 FY2023 revenue of $945.3M, GAAP EPS $0.37, Non-GAAP EPS $0.89, with strong organic growth excluding COVID-19.
2022-11-01SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.34%Hologic reports Q4 fiscal 2022 results with 27.6% revenue decline but exceeds expectations
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$60
Bear
$83
Base
$96
Bull
$76