HSIC
Henry Schein, Inc.$80.58
Sell
Target $71.01
Report: Mar 08, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Distribution • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$80.58-11.9%
Rec: SellConviction: Medium
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$71.01
(12% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$89.29
52 Week Low$60.56
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.35M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin31.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin7.5%
LTM EBIT Margin5.1%
LTM Operating Margin5.0%
LTM ROA3.6%
LTM ROE11.9%
LTM ROIC11.3%
LTM ROCE8.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$8.5B
Enterprise Value (MM)$11.7B
Shares Outstanding117.36M
Total Debt (MM)$3.44B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$156.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$3.28B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth4.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR1.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR0.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-5.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$90.17
LTM EV/Revenue0.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit2.9x
LTM EV/EBIT17.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA11.9x
LTM P/E21.2x
LTM EV/FCF22.5x
LTM P/FCF16.2x
LTM P/TB1.4x
LTM P/B2.6x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $80.58 versus fair value $71.01 (-11.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Execution of the $200 million operating income improvement plan. Bear case centers on Structural margin erosion from product mix shift. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The BOLD+1 strategy successfully shifts the mix to 50% high-margin operating income by 2027; KKR's involvement drives $200 million in operational efficiencies; digital platform lock-in allows for aggressive pricing in software services.
Bear Case
Incremental ROIC of 1.6% proves that M&A is value-destructive; gross margins continue to slide as value implants cannibalize premium lines; high leverage (105.9% D/E) limits future buyback capacity.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Execution of the $200 million operating income improvement plan. This is the primary test of the new CEO's operational mandate. Success woul...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
KKR increasing its stake to 19.9%. This provides a technical floor and signals continued activist support, potentially leading to a segment...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Henry Schein is at a critical juncture following the March 2026 CEO transition and the finalization of a $2.9 million class-action settlemen...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Structural margin erosion from product mix shift. As dental practices move toward 'value' implants, Henry Schein's high-margin specialty bus...
Concern: Medium
Geopolitical and tariff exposure. Reliance on Chinese manufacturing for PPE and plastic syringes exposes the company to cost escalations tha...
Concern: Medium
The governance outcome tree is currently in a 'Compromise' phase. 1. Status Quo: Lowery executes BOLD+1 with KKR oversight (40% probability)...
Recent Activity
2025-11-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.78%Henry Schein reports record Q3 2025 results and raises full-year guidance
2025-08-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.41%Henry Schein reports Q2 2025 financial results with sales growth and strategic initiatives
2025-04-09Market Movement
+5.52%Market/Sector Move +5.52%
2024-08-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.11%Henry Schein reports Q2 2024 results with updated 2024 guidance and announces restructuring plan
2023-05-09SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.23%Henry Schein reports first-quarter 2023 financial results with 3.8% sales decline.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$59
Bear
$80
Base
$99
Bull
$81