IBKR
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.$68.05
Sell
Target $49.20
Report: Mar 07, 2026Financial Services • Investment - Banking & Investment Services • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$68.05-27.7%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$49.20
(28% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$79.18
52 Week Low$32.82
Avg. 3 Month Volume4.99M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin93.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin24.0%
LTM EBIT Margin22.5%
LTM Operating Margin76.9%
LTM ROA0.5%
LTM ROE19.9%
LTM ROIC0.7%
LTM ROCE0.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$29.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$50.4B
Shares Outstanding445.42M
Total Debt (MM)$25.51B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$4.96B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$20.55B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA13.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth19.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR26.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR34.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR33.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$84.00
LTM EV/Revenue8.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit8.7x
LTM EV/EBIT36.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA33.8x
LTM P/E30.4x
LTM EV/FCF3.2x
LTM P/FCF1.9x
LTM P/TB0.1x
LTM P/B5.6x
Dividend Yield0.6%
Payout Ratio17.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $68.05 versus fair value $49.2 (-27.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts As 60% of revenue is derived from net interest income, a series of rate cuts will directly compress margins and earnings, challenging the current high-multiple valuation. Bear case centers on Interest Rate Sensitivity and NII Compression The primary threat is a decline in the Federal Funds Rate, which would permanently impair the company's pricing power and return on capital by reducing the yield on $96B in client cash. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The company is a high-margin compounding machine with a widening moat, evidenced by 1 million net new accounts annually and a 79% pretax margin. Expansion into crypto stablecoin funding and the ForecastX prediction market provides new, non-interest-sensitive revenue streams.
Bear Case
Net interest income, which accounts for 60% of revenue, is at a cyclical peak and will face severe compression as rates fall. Insiders have sold $124.3M in stock over the last year, signaling that those closest to the business view the current valuation as excessive.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts As 60% of revenue is derived from net interest income, a series of rate cuts will directly compress margi...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
OCC Approval for National Trust Bank Charter Approval would allow the company to custody mutual funds and ETFs directly, diversifying the re...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Interactive Brokers is at a critical juncture as it trades near all-time highs while facing a fundamental shift in the interest rate environ...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Interest Rate Sensitivity and NII Compression The primary threat is a decline in the Federal Funds Rate, which would permanently impair the...
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion from Technological Disruption A new low-cost competitor or a shift in market structure (e.g., AI-driven zero-commission profess...
Concern: Medium
The governance structure is dominated by the founder, Thomas Peterffy. While this ensures long-term strategic continuity, it also creates a...
Recent Activity
2026-01-21SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.00%Interactive Brokers Group reported Q4 2025 GAAP diluted EPS of $0.63 and adjusted EPS of $0.65, with net revenues of $1.64 billion (GAAP) and $1.67 billion (adjusted).
2025-07-18SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.77%Interactive Brokers Group reports Q2 2025 results with GAAP diluted EPS of $0.51 and adjusted EPS of $0.51
2025-04-16SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.95%Interactive Brokers Group reports Q1 2025 results with GAAP diluted EPS of $1.94 and adjusted EPS of $1.88
2025-02-05SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+5.40%BlackRock, Inc. files Schedule 13G/A reporting 9.5% beneficial ownership of Interactive Brokers Group Class A common stock
2025-01-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.79%Interactive Brokers Group reports Q4 2024 results with GAAP diluted EPS of $1.99 and adjusted EPS of $2.03
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$23
Bear
$53
Base
$73
Bull
$68