ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.$160.17
Sell
Target $135.97
Report: Mar 13, 2026Financial Services • Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$160.17-15.1%
Rec: SellConviction: Medium
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$135.97
(15% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$189.35
52 Week Low$143.17
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.85M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin78.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin52.6%
LTM EBIT Margin40.3%
LTM Operating Margin39.0%
LTM ROA2.3%
LTM ROE11.6%
LTM ROIC22.5%
LTM ROCE10.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$89.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$107.8B
Shares Outstanding569.00M
Total Debt (MM)$20.28B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.82B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$18.45B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth7.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR9.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR25.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR31.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$192.86
LTM EV/Revenue8.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit10.9x
LTM EV/EBIT21.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA16.2x
LTM P/E26.9x
LTM EV/FCF27.8x
LTM P/FCF23.1x
LTM P/TB1.0x
LTM P/B3.1x
Dividend Yield1.2%
Payout Ratio33.1%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $160.17 versus fair value $135.97 (-15.1% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Mortgage Technology Revenue Miss: A failure to meet the low-to-mid single-digit growth guidance in the mortgage segment would validate concerns about cyclicality and moat erosion. Bear case centers on Energy Volume Surge: A geopolitical event that drives massive volatility in Brent or TTF gas would lead to record transaction revenue, potentially masking structural weaknesses in other segments. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
ICE's shift to 50% recurring revenue provides a stable floor; energy transition tailwinds drive record volumes in Brent and environmental contracts; AI integration via ICE Aurora expands the data moat.
Bear Case
Massive insider selling ($176M) signals management's view that the stock is fully valued; capex intensity (6.3%) is unsustainable relative to peers; mortgage technology remains highly cyclical and sensitive to interest rate volatility.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Mortgage Technology Revenue Miss: A failure to meet the low-to-mid single-digit growth guidance in the mortgage segment would validate conce...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Operating Margin Compression: If operating expenses grow faster than the 4-5% guidance due to AI infrastructure costs, margins will compress...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
ICE is relevant for analysis now because it is trading at a premium multiple despite a clear bearish technical trend (below 200-day SMA) and...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Energy Volume Surge: A geopolitical event that drives massive volatility in Brent or TTF gas would lead to record transaction revenue, poten...
Concern: Medium
Faster Deleveraging: If ICE uses its $3.9B of free cash flow to aggressively pay down debt faster than the 3.0x target, the equity cushion w...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is 'Capable but Misaligned.' While the board is independent and the CEO is a proven operator, the massive net inside...
Recent Activity
2026-02-11Press Release
-7.78%Ice Launches Coindesk Cryptocurrency Futures Contracts
2026-02-03Press Release
-5.84%Ice Announces Strongest Trading Month In Its History
2024-10-31SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.40%Intercontinental Exchange reports record third quarter 2024 results with strong revenue and earnings growth
2022-05-05SEC Filing (SC 13D/A)
-7.49%Intercontinental Exchange and subsidiary file Schedule 13D/A for Bakkt Holdings ownership
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$87
Bear
$115
Base
$134
Bull
$160