IVZ
Invesco Ltd.$23.97
Sell
Target $17.54
Report: Mar 11, 2026Financial Services • Asset Management • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$23.97-26.8%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$17.54
(27% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$29.61
52 Week Low$11.60
Avg. 3 Month Volume5.70M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin-10.9%
LTM EBIT Margin-13.3%
LTM Operating Margin-10.9%
LTM ROA-4.2%
LTM ROE-8.5%
LTM ROIC-3.6%
LTM ROCE-3.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$10.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$20.5B
Shares Outstanding443.67M
Total Debt (MM)$10.79B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.04B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$9.76B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-14.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth5.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR1.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$30.44
LTM EV/Revenue3.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit3.2x
LTM EV/EBIT-24.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA-29.6x
LTM P/E-9.2x
LTM EV/FCF14.2x
LTM P/FCF7.5x
LTM P/TB0.7x
LTM P/B0.9x
Dividend Yield3.5%
Payout Ratio-52.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $23.97 versus fair value $17.54 (-26.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Macroeconomic inflection via sustained $15-20B quarterly net long-term inflows as in Q4 2025 $19.1B, validating supply discipline in Golden Age cycle and countering trough-margin extrapolation. Bear case centers on Lower-for-longer downturn prolongs trough -10.9% margins via outflows/recession, impairing cash returns as leverage 88.2% stresses covenants if adj coverage falls below 4x. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Record $81.2B FY2025 inflows and $2.2T AUM position for 5%+ revenue growth; Alpha efficiencies target mid-30s adjusted margins; QQQ conversion +6bps yield and private partnerships (Barings $3.5B inflows) drive mix shift to higher fees.
Bear Case
Recurring $1.8B impairments (FY2023 $1.2B prior) mask true earnings power with GAAP -10.9% margins vs peer 24.7%; negative ROIC -3.6% and TB -$173M erode book value; active outflows persist at $2B/quarter.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Macroeconomic inflection via sustained $15-20B quarterly net long-term inflows as in Q4 2025 $19.1B, validating supply discipline in Golden...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Invesco's core value driver is cyclical AUM recovery, but $1.8B impairments have cratered GAAP margins to -10.9% despite $1.53B operating ca...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
IVZ trades at trough 3.2x EV/Sales (hist low 2.4x) post-Q4 earnings beat (rev +33.9% est, EPS +6.5%) yet -5.13% reaction on impairment, time...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-longer downturn prolongs trough -10.9% margins via outflows/recession, impairing cash returns as leverage 88.2% stresses covenants...
Concern: Medium
Prolonged outflows/recession compress revenue -2% annually, margins -4% to 16.1% Y5 ($4.85/share at 11x); survives solvency (adj coverage 20...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate with 90.9% independent board, separated Chair/CEO, and strong oversight (Audit Chair Phoebe Wood financial expert 8-...
Recent Activity
2026-01-27SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.13%Invesco reports Q4 2025 results with $2.2 trillion AUM, $19.1B net inflows, and $1.8B intangible impairment
2025-10-10SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.98%Invesco Ltd. reports preliminary AUM of $2,124.8 billion for September 2025
2025-07-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.20%Invesco reports Q2 2025 results with $15.6B net long-term inflows and record $2.0T AUM
2025-05-10SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+5.12%Invesco Ltd. reports 7.1% ownership in Amentum Holdings Inc
2025-04-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.27%Invesco reports Q1 2025 financial results
Valuation Table
9.5/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$0
Bear
$12
Base
$4
Bull
$24