KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.$30.49
Unclear
Target $41.00
Report: Mar 07, 2026Consumer Defensive • Beverages - Non-Alcoholic • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$30.49+34.5%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$31.54
(3% above current)
Fair Value
$41.00
(34% above current)
Stop Loss
$25.03
(18% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$36.12
52 Week Low$25.03
Avg. 3 Month Volume10.50M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin54.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin24.3%
LTM EBIT Margin20.7%
LTM Operating Margin21.5%
LTM ROA3.8%
LTM ROE8.3%
LTM ROIC19.3%
LTM ROCE7.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$35.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$50.9B
Shares Outstanding1.36B
Total Debt (MM)$16.17B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.04B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$15.12B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth8.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR5.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR11.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR14.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$33.83
LTM EV/Revenue3.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.7x
LTM EV/EBIT14.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.6x
LTM P/E17.2x
LTM EV/FCF33.9x
LTM P/FCF23.8x
LTM P/TB3.1x
LTM P/B1.4x
Dividend Yield3.5%
Payout Ratio60.1%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $30.49 versus fair value $41.0 (34.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is insufficiently stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Completion of the JDE Peet's acquisition and the start of the integration process. Bear case centers on Execution risk associated with the JDE Peet's integration and the subsequent corporate separation. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Successful integration of JDE Peet's unlocks 400M in synergies and creates a global coffee powerhouse; Energy portfolio (Ghost, C4) continues double-digit share gains in the 26B category; Keurig Alta platform re-accelerates coffee pod volume growth in late 2026.
Bear Case
Elevated leverage of 3.6x net debt/EBITDA limits capital allocation flexibility and increases interest expense to an estimated 1.07B-1.12B; Persistent commodity inflation in green coffee and sugar continues to compress gross margins, which fell 150 bps in Q4 2025; Massive insider selling by JAB Bevco (2.74B) signals a lack of conviction in the near-term upside.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Completion of the JDE Peet's acquisition and the start of the integration process. This will provide clarity on the pro-forma capital struct...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: High
Launch of the Keurig Alta platform. This next-generation system is designed to re-accelerate coffee pod volume growth and expand household p...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Keurig Dr Pepper is at a critical inflection point as it closes the JDE Peet's transaction in April 2026, which will fundamentally alter its...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Execution risk associated with the JDE Peet's integration and the subsequent corporate separation. Failure to capture 400M in synergies coul...
Concern: High
Moat erosion in the coffee segment due to intensified competition and persistent commodity inflation. Rising green coffee and sugar costs co...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is mixed due to the massive insider selling. The Governance Outcome Tree is as follows: 1. Status Quo: Successful se...
Recent Activity
2025-08-26SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.91%Keurig Dr Pepper to acquire JDE Peet's and separate into two independent companies
2023-04-27SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.52%Keurig Dr Pepper reports Q1 2023 results and reaffirms 2023 guidance
Valuation Table
4.7/10Directional