KVUE
Kenvue Inc.$18.25
Unclear
Target $16.47
Report: Mar 07, 2026Consumer Defensive • Household & Personal Products • Turnaround CandidateSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$18.25-9.8%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$12.67
(31% below current)
Fair Value
$16.47
(10% below current)
Stop Loss
$14.02
(23% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional (12-24 Months)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$25.17
52 Week Low$14.02
Avg. 3 Month Volume40.62M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin58.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin19.4%
LTM EBIT Margin15.7%
LTM Operating Margin16.0%
LTM ROA5.5%
LTM ROE13.9%
LTM ROIC23.1%
LTM ROCE11.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$33.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$40.5B
Shares Outstanding1.92B
Total Debt (MM)$8.52B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.06B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$7.46B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-2.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$18.20
LTM EV/Revenue2.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.6x
LTM EV/EBIT17.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA13.8x
LTM P/E22.5x
LTM EV/FCF23.5x
LTM P/FCF19.2x
LTM P/TB3.7x
LTM P/B3.1x
Dividend Yield4.8%
Payout Ratio106.3%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $18.25 versus fair value $16.47 (-9.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Kimberly-Clark acquisition close H2 2026 at $21.01/share unlocks $48.7B EV premium, addressing market solvency fears via synergies/deleveraging. Bear case centers on Merger failure (regulatory/shareholder rejection) triggers covenant breach on $8.5B debt (27% due 2026), accelerating to bankruptcy as 0.96 current ratio exhausts $1.1B cash. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Kimberly-Clark acquisition at $21.01/share (15% premium) with $2.1B synergies validates brands; $350M Our Vue Forward savings drive 410bps margin rebound to 16.0%; OCF $2.2B (149% conversion) funds 12+ month runway.
Bear Case
Organic sales -4.2% persist amid litigation (Tylenol autism/PE suits, UK talc); 2.5x net debt/EBITDA and 0.96 current ratio risk covenant breach; NLV $0.00 with negative -$3.88 TBV/share.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Kimberly-Clark acquisition close H2 2026 at $21.01/share unlocks $48.7B EV premium, addressing market solvency fears via synergies/deleverag...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Our Vue Forward $350M savings fully realized by 2026 via SKU cuts/workforce reduction, driving 410bps margin expansion to validate turnaroun...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Pending Kimberly-Clark merger (H2 2026 close) amid Starboard activism and Q4 2025 strategic review creates acute relevance now, with stock -...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Merger failure (regulatory/shareholder rejection) triggers covenant breach on $8.5B debt (27% due 2026), accelerating to bankruptcy as 0.96...
Concern: Medium
Litigation escalation (Tylenol autism/PE, UK talc >3K claims) erodes 12-15% earnings from Self Care, amplifying organic -4.2% decline.
Concern: Medium
Governance Outcome Tree: 1. Status Quo (Merger closes H2 2026: +15% to $21.01); 2. Compromise (Regulatory concessions: flat to +5%); 3. Rese...
Recent Activity
2025-11-03SEC Filing (8-K)
+12.32%Kimberly-Clark announces $48.7 billion acquisition of Kenvue to create $32 billion global health and wellness leader.
2024-08-06SEC Filing (8-K)
+14.68%Kenvue reports Q2 2024 net sales down 0.3% to $4.0B with organic growth of 1.5%.
2024-05-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.24%Kenvue reports Q1 2024 net sales up 1.1% to $3.9B with organic growth of 1.9%.
2024-02-08SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.80%Kenvue reported full year 2023 net sales of $15.4 billion, up 3.3% with organic growth of 5.0%, and Q4 2023 net sales of $3.7 billion, down 2.7% with organic growth of (2.4)%.
2023-10-26SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.27%Kenvue reports Q3 2023 net sales up 3.3% to $3.9B with organic growth of 3.6%.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$0
Bear
$17
Base
$20
Bull
$18