LYB
LyondellBasell Industries N.V.$65.88
Sell
Target $51.36
Report: Mar 08, 2026Basic Materials • Chemicals - Specialty • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$65.88-22.0%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$51.36
(22% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$83.94
52 Week Low$41.58
Avg. 3 Month Volume7.83M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin8.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin4.0%
LTM EBIT Margin-0.6%
LTM Operating Margin-1.4%
LTM ROA-2.2%
LTM ROE-6.7%
LTM ROIC-0.5%
LTM ROCE-0.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$26.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$36.8B
Shares Outstanding322.17M
Total Debt (MM)$14.27B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$3.45B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$10.82B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA8.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-25.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-15.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-42.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$57.89
LTM EV/Revenue1.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit14.3x
LTM EV/EBIT-206.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA30.3x
LTM P/E-34.8x
LTM EV/FCF71.4x
LTM P/FCF50.4x
LTM P/TB0.8x
LTM P/B2.6x
Dividend Yield6.8%
Payout Ratio-232.9%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $65.88 versus fair value $51.36 (-22.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on S&P Credit Rating Downgrade S&P has already placed the company on CreditWatch Negative. Bear case centers on Prolonged Cyclical Trough The primary risk is that the current downturn is structural rather than cyclical. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
A widening of the ethane-naphtha spread driven by Middle East instability could restore the U.S. Gulf Coast cost advantage; accelerated capacity rationalization in China could lead to a sharper-than-expected margin recovery.
Bear Case
Prolonged overcapacity in Asia keeps margins at trough levels through 2028; high leverage (141.5% D/E) leads to a credit rating downgrade and increased cost of debt, forcing further capital deferrals.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
S&P Credit Rating Downgrade S&P has already placed the company on CreditWatch Negative. A formal downgrade to BBB- or below would increase i...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
European Asset Sale Completion The sale of four European assets to AEQUITA is expected in H1 2026. If the proceeds are lower than the $700M-...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Our differentiated view is that the 'floor' has moved. Historically, LYB traded at a Price-to-Tangible-Book of 2.5x, but recurring goodwill...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Prolonged Cyclical Trough The primary risk is that the current downturn is structural rather than cyclical. If China's overcapacity persists...
Concern: High
Balance Sheet Leverage With a debt-to-equity ratio of 141.5% and $12.9 billion in total debt, the company has limited flexibility to navigat...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is cautious. While the board is highly independent and includes industry veterans like former BP CEO Bob Dudley, the...
Recent Activity
2026-03-04Analyst Target
+6.37%Firm: KeyBanc Analyst: Aleksey Yefremov Price Target: $73.00 Price When Posted: $58.21 Implied Upside: +25.4%
2026-02-03Analyst Target
+6.37%Firm: RBC Capital Price Target: $51.00 Price When Posted: $53.33 Implied Downside: -4.4%
2025-11-13SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.10%LyondellBasell completed a $1.5 billion public offering of 5.125% and 5.875% guaranteed notes due 2031 and 2036.
2025-08-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.79%LyondellBasell reported Q2 2025 earnings with $115M net income and announced strategic portfolio actions.
2025-04-04Market Movement
-8.13%Market/Sector Move -8.13%
Valuation Table
9.4/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$29
Bear
$78
Base
$105
Bull
$66