LYV
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.$162.07
Sell
Target $97.38
Report: Mar 07, 2026Communication Services • Entertainment • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$162.07-39.9%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$97.38
(40% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$175.25
52 Week Low$113.20
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.97M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin25.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin6.1%
LTM EBIT Margin4.6%
LTM Operating Margin4.7%
LTM ROA-0.2%
LTM ROE-17.4%
LTM ROIC13.7%
LTM ROCE10.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$35.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$39.0B
Shares Outstanding232.26M
Total Debt (MM)$10.24B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$7.09B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$3.14B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth8.8%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR14.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR10.8%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$180.20
LTM EV/Revenue1.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit6.1x
LTM EV/EBIT33.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA25.5x
LTM P/E-653.1x
LTM EV/FCF124.5x
LTM P/FCF114.5x
LTM P/TB1.9x
LTM P/B132.1x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $162.07 versus fair value $97.38 (-39.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on DOJ Antitrust Litigation Progress Any court ruling or settlement that mandates the divestiture of Ticketmaster or limits the 'flywheel' integration will lead to a significant de-rating of the stock. Bear case centers on Regulatory and Legal Risk The mechanism for impairment is a forced breakup or operational restrictions that cap secondary ticketing fees, which are a primary driver of Ticketmaster's high-margin revenue. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Proponents argue that the 'Experience Economy' is a structural shift, evidenced by a 60% increase in stadium show counts and a 20% rise in global fan counts. They believe the high-margin sponsorship business, which grew in the double digits in 2025, will eventually offset the low-margin concerts business.
Bear Case
The bear case centers on the company's fragile balance sheet, characterized by negative equity and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3,777%. Furthermore, the DOJ's pursuit of a breakup could dismantle the Ticketmaster 'flywheel,' which is the company's only true source of high-margin cash flow.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
DOJ Antitrust Litigation Progress Any court ruling or settlement that mandates the divestiture of Ticketmaster or limits the 'flywheel' inte...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Consumer Spending Normalization A slowdown in high-end discretionary spending would directly impact stadium tour sell-through rates and high...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Live Nation is relevant for analysis at this moment because it is trading near all-time highs despite a GAAP loss and an intensifying federa...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Regulatory and Legal Risk The mechanism for impairment is a forced breakup or operational restrictions that cap secondary ticketing fees, wh...
Concern: Medium
Balance Sheet and Solvency Risk A 'lower-for-longer' cyclical downturn could impair the company's ability to service its 10.2 billion dollar...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is mixed. While the board is independent and experienced, the lack of insider buying and the 6.8 million dollars in...
Recent Activity
2025-11-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.59%Live Nation reports Q3 2025 results with record performance and strong outlook
2024-05-23SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.81%Live Nation Entertainment to share regulatory update via teleconference on May 23, 2024.
2024-05-03SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.24%Live Nation Entertainment reports record first quarter 2024 results with 21% revenue growth.
2023-07-28SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.84%Live Nation Entertainment reports record second quarter 2023 results with 27% revenue growth.
2023-05-05SEC Filing (8-K)
+15.04%Live Nation Entertainment reports record first quarter 2023 results with 73% revenue growth.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade