MAR
Marriott International, Inc.$335.94
Sell
Target $261.34
Report: Mar 07, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Travel Lodging • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$335.94-22.2%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$261.34
(22% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$370.00
52 Week Low$205.40
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.65M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin19.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin18.3%
LTM EBIT Margin16.1%
LTM Operating Margin15.8%
LTM ROA9.5%
LTM ROE-79.9%
LTM ROIC26.1%
LTM ROCE22.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$86.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$103.4B
Shares Outstanding264.98M
Total Debt (MM)$17.08B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$358.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$16.73B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth4.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR8.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR8.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR9.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$361.22
LTM EV/Revenue3.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit19.8x
LTM EV/EBIT24.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA21.5x
LTM P/E33.3x
LTM EV/FCF39.6x
LTM P/FCF33.2x
LTM P/TB10.4x
LTM P/B-23.0x
Dividend Yield0.8%
Payout Ratio27.7%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $335.94 versus fair value $261.34 (-22.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on 2026 FIFA World Cup Demand Surge Marriott expects the World Cup to contribute 30-35 basis points to global RevPAR in 2026. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion via Regulatory Intervention Legislation targeting 'junk fees' or resort fees could permanently impair Marriott's high-margin ancillary revenue streams and force price transparency that reduces overall booking volume. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The Bonvoy loyalty program (271M members) provides a recession-proof demand floor and high-margin credit card royalty fees, which grew 35% in 2025. Expansion into affordable midscale segments like City Express and StudioRes opens a massive new TAM in emerging markets.
Bear Case
Valuation is at a decade-high 34x P/E while RevPAR growth is slowing to a crawl (guided 1.5-2.5% for 2026). Gross margins are compressing (down 40 bps to 19.9%) as labor and energy inflation outpaces fee growth, and Greater China RevPAR has turned negative (-2%).
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
2026 FIFA World Cup Demand Surge Marriott expects the World Cup to contribute 30-35 basis points to global RevPAR in 2026. This event valida...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Credit Card Royalty Step-Up Negotiated royalty rate increases on co-branded credit cards are expected to drive a 35% increase in fee revenue...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Marriott is relevant for analysis now because it is trading at a multi-year valuation peak just as insider selling has reached a fever pitch...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion via Regulatory Intervention Legislation targeting 'junk fees' or resort fees could permanently impair Marriott's high-margin an...
Concern: Medium
Input Cost Inflation vs. Fee Caps Rising labor and energy costs at the property level may exceed the company's ability to raise franchise fe...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is Status Quo with a 'Distribution' bias. The governance structure is sound, but the alignment is shifting. While th...
Recent Activity
2026-02-10SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.50%Marriott International reports Q4 and full year 2025 financial results with strong performance.
2025-02-11SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.40%Marriott International reports Q4 and full year 2024 financial results with record performance.
2024-02-13SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-5.59%Vanguard Group reports 7.14% beneficial ownership of Marriott International Class A common stock.
2022-02-15SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.76%Marriott International announces board leadership transition and new director appointment.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$195
Bear
$268
Bull
$336