MLM
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.$632.93
Sell
Target $342.04
Report: Mar 08, 2026Basic Materials • Construction Materials • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$632.93-46.0%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$342.04
(46% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$710.97
52 Week Low$441.95
Avg. 3 Month Volume530K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin30.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin36.7%
LTM EBIT Margin26.3%
LTM Operating Margin23.4%
LTM ROA6.2%
LTM ROE11.9%
LTM ROIC8.6%
LTM ROCE9.3%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$35.5B
Enterprise Value (MM)$41.1B
Shares Outstanding60.50M
Total Debt (MM)$5.71B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$67.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$5.64B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth0.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR2.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR8.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR10.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$696.50
LTM EV/Revenue6.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit21.0x
LTM EV/EBIT25.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA18.3x
LTM P/E31.2x
LTM EV/FCF42.1x
LTM P/FCF36.3x
LTM P/TB2.4x
LTM P/B3.5x
Dividend Yield0.6%
Payout Ratio17.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $632.93 versus fair value $342.04 (-46.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Closing of the Quikrete Asset Exchange and Subsequent Guidance Reset. Bear case centers on Persistent Operating Margin Volatility. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Aggregates pricing power remains robust with mid-single-digit increases expected in 2026, supported by a 250 bps price-cost spread. The IIJA infrastructure funding is entering its peak disbursement phase, providing a multi-year demand floor for the 16 billion tons of reserves.
Bear Case
Operating margins have collapsed from 41.4% to 23.4% due to integration costs and inventory markups that are proving more persistent than management's 'one-time' narrative suggests. Capital allocation is highly inefficient, with an M&A effectiveness score of 0.1x and an incremental ROIC of -24.9%.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Closing of the Quikrete Asset Exchange and Subsequent Guidance Reset. This event will force management to provide a pro-forma outlook that a...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
IIJA Reauthorization and Federal Funding Disbursements. As the peak disbursement phase of the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill begins in 20...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Martin Marietta is at a critical juncture following a 6.6% price drop on its Q4 2025 earnings miss, making it a timely candidate for a valua...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Persistent Operating Margin Volatility. The mechanism is the continued drag from acquisition integration and inventory-markup adjustments, w...
Concern: Medium
Interest Rate Sensitivity in Residential Markets. High rates dampen private construction volumes, which may not be fully offset by public in...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate in terms of operational safety and regulatory compliance, but poor in terms of capital discipline. The governance ou...
Recent Activity
2026-02-11SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.56%Martin Marietta Materials reported Q4 and full-year 2025 results with record revenues, gross profit, and margin expansion.
2023-11-01SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.39%Martin Marietta Materials reports record third-quarter 2023 results with 32.3% Adjusted EBITDA growth
2023-05-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.62%Martin Marietta Materials reports record first-quarter 2023 results with 64.2% Adjusted EBITDA growth
2023-02-15SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+7.47%Select Equity Group and George S. Loening report 5.8% ownership in Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.
2022-05-05Analyst Target
-5.68%Firm: Stephens Price Target: $455.00 Price When Posted: $359.89 Implied Upside: +26.4%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$80
Bear
$287
Base
$412
Bull
$633