MOH
Molina Healthcare, Inc.$163.47
Buy
Target $312.48
Report: Mar 08, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Healthcare Plans • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$163.47+91.1%
Rec: BuyConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$163.47
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$312.48
(91% above current)
Stop Loss
$130.00
(20% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Transitional (12-24 Months)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$359.97
52 Week Low$121.06
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.90M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin9.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin2.1%
LTM EBIT Margin1.7%
LTM Operating Margin1.7%
LTM ROA3.0%
LTM ROE11.0%
LTM ROIC14.5%
LTM ROCE9.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$6.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$6.6B
Shares Outstanding52.80M
Total Debt (MM)$3.95B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$4.25B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-298.00M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth11.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR12.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-10.2%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-13.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$175.64
LTM EV/Revenue0.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit1.6x
LTM EV/EBIT8.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA6.7x
LTM P/E14.5x
LTM EV/FCF-10.3x
LTM P/FCF-10.8x
LTM P/TB0.5x
LTM P/B1.7x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummaryMolina is navigating a severe cyclical trough where medical cost inflation (7-15%) has temporarily decoupled from fixed premium rate increases (5.5%), crushing operating margins to 3.0% against a 12.4% five-year average. While the market is pricing this as a structural impairment, our analysis suggests a mean-reversion opportunity as 2026 rate resets and a 20% reduction in unprofitable Marketplace footprint restore earnings power. With negative net debt of 369 million and a fortress balance sheet, the company is well-positioned to survive the trough and capture significant upside as the cycle turns.
Bull Case
1. Mean reversion of margins to 4.5% as 2026 rate resets catch up to medical inflation. 2. Fortress balance sheet with negative net debt provides a definitive floor. 3. Embedded earnings of 8.65 per share from recent contract wins not yet reflected in trough pricing.
Bear Case
1. Structural dislocation where medical costs permanently outpace government funding. 2. Potential for massive Medicaid cuts under new federal budget bills. 3. Management's poor track record of pro-cyclical capital allocation and cost forecasting.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
2026 Medicaid Rate Renewals: Approximately 55% of Medicaid revenue renews on January 1. This is the primary mechanism for the company to 'pr...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Marketplace Footprint Rationalization: The 20% reduction in county footprint and 30% average rate increases will take effect in Q1 2026. Thi...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Lower-for-Longer Margin Compression: The risk that state Medicaid agencies fail to provide adequate rate increases in 2026, leading to a str...
Concern: Low
Balance Sheet Damage from Pro-Cyclical Buybacks: The company's aggressive buybacks at 300+ have reduced the tangible equity cushion just as...
Recent Activity
2026-02-13SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+6.82%Excerpt: SCHEDULE 13G/A 1 primary_doc.xml SCHEDULE 13G/A 0001167557-25-000063 0001167557 XXXXXXXX LIVE 1 Common Stock, $0.
2026-02-06SEC Filing (SC 13G)
-25.51%Excerpt: SCHEDULE 13G 1 primary_doc.xml SCHEDULE 13G 0000315066 XXXXXXXX LIVE COMMON STOCK 12/31/2025 0001179929 MOLINA HEALTHCARE INC 60855R100
2025-11-21SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.24%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) ex_891318.htm Exhibit 99.1 News Release Investor Contact : Jeff Geyer, Jeffrey. Geyer@molinahealthcare.com , 305-317-3012 Media Contact : Caroline Zubieta, Caroline. Zubieta@molinahealthcare.com ,...
2025-10-23SEC Filing (8-K)
-17.49%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document News Release Investor Contact: Jeffrey Geyer, Jeffrey. Geyer@molinahealthcare.com , 305-317-3012 Media Contact: Caroline Zubieta, Caroline. Zubieta@molinahealthcare.com , 562-951-1588 Molina...
2025-07-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-16.84%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document News Release Investor Contact: Jeffrey Geyer, Jeffrey. Geyer@molinahealthcare.com , 305-317-3012 Media Contact: Caroline Zubieta, Caroline. Zubieta@molinahealthcare.com , 562-951-1588 Molina...
Valuation Table