NDSN
Nordson Corporation$287.54
Unclear
Target $267.28
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Industrial - Machinery • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$287.54-7.0%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$205.60
(28% below current)
Fair Value
$267.28
(7% below current)
Stop Loss
$219.52
(24% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$305.28
52 Week Low$165.03
Avg. 3 Month Volume405K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin55.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin31.5%
LTM EBIT Margin26.2%
LTM Operating Margin25.9%
LTM ROA8.7%
LTM ROE17.3%
LTM ROIC21.9%
LTM ROCE13.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$14.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$16.8B
Shares Outstanding55.79M
Total Debt (MM)$2.08B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$120.39M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.96B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth6.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR3.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR5.8%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR2.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$311.50
LTM EV/Revenue5.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit10.7x
LTM EV/EBIT22.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA18.8x
LTM P/E28.4x
LTM EV/FCF26.0x
LTM P/FCF22.9x
LTM P/TB7.6x
LTM P/B4.8x
Dividend Yield1.2%
Payout Ratio34.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $287.54 versus fair value $267.28 (-7.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on ATS semiconductor advanced packaging demand sustains 20%+ growth, validating moat in high-margin dispense/X-ray; Q1 FY2026 23% organic beat addresses lumpiness fears per transcripts. Bear case centers on Moat erosion from U.S.-China tariffs disrupting ATS semiconductor supply, compressing 55.2% gross margins via cost pass-through failure. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
ATS semiconductor packaging demand drives 4.5% blended growth with 23% Q1 organic surge and X-ray inflection; 55.2% gross margins 6.9 points above peers sustain ROIC >20%; $719M OCF funds 11% buyback yield and deleveraging to 2.2x.
Bear Case
Organic growth modest at 3.8% FY2025 with flat gross margins amid input inflation; ROIC declined 23.7% to 21.9%; insiders sold $24.7M shares (46 transactions, 0 buys) signaling caution.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
ATS semiconductor advanced packaging demand sustains 20%+ growth, validating moat in high-margin dispense/X-ray; Q1 FY2026 23% organic beat...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
NBS Next drives 30bps+ margin gains via efficiencies, countering mix/FX; SG&A fell 100bps to 29.2% FY2025.
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Recent Q1 FY2026 beat/raise to $2.86-2.98B sales (+4.5% midpoint) and ATS 23% growth make now pivotal for moat validation amid AI tailwinds.
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion from U.S.-China tariffs disrupting ATS semiconductor supply, compressing 55.2% gross margins via cost pass-through failure.
Concern: High
Cyclical IPS polymer/auto slowdown permanently impairs pricing, fading ROIC below 20%.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship strong with 90% independent board featuring ex-CEOs Victor Richey (ESCO), Christopher Mapes (Lincoln Electric), Jennifer Parment...
Recent Activity
2025-05-29SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.76%Nordson reports Q2 2025 results with 5% sales growth and strong backlog
2024-12-12SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.19%Nordson reports record full-year 2024 results and provides fiscal 2025 guidance
2024-05-21SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.41%Nordson reports Q2 2024 results with flat sales and updates full-year guidance
2022-02-11SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-5.75%Vanguard Group reports 8.85% beneficial ownership of Nordson Corp. common stock
2021-12-16SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.53%Nordson reports record full-year 2021 results with 11% sales growth and strong Q4
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$220
Bear
$857
Base
$317
Bull
$288