ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.$215.91
Sell
Target $190.73
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Trucking • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$215.91-11.7%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$190.73
(12% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$221.63
52 Week Low$126.01
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.32M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin85.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin31.7%
LTM EBIT Margin24.8%
LTM Operating Margin24.8%
LTM ROA18.6%
LTM ROE24.0%
LTM ROIC27.2%
LTM ROCE27.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$40.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$40.6B
Shares Outstanding208.83M
Total Debt (MM)$39.99M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$120.09M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-80.10M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-5.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-4.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-6.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-7.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$193.06
LTM EV/Revenue7.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit8.7x
LTM EV/EBIT29.9x
LTM EV/EBITDA23.3x
LTM P/E39.8x
LTM EV/FCF40.5x
LTM P/FCF40.6x
LTM P/TB7.4x
LTM P/B9.4x
Dividend Yield0.6%
Payout Ratio23.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $215.91 versus fair value $190.73 (-11.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Tonnage re-acceleration to flat YoY by mid-2026, validating moat-driven share gains from 35% spare capacity and 99% service superiority amid peer capex cuts (SAIA -16.8% intensity). Bear case centers on Prolonged freight recession eroding pricing power, with tonnage declines >10% deleveraging fixed costs (overhead +140bps to 75.2% OR). Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
85.1% gross margins 3210bps above peers sustain 27.2% ROIC; 35% spare capacity positions for tonnage re-acceleration; $4.0B buybacks at 13.4% yield compound per-share value.
Bear Case
Persistent 9-10% tonnage declines signal freight recession; operating ratio at 75.2% from deleveraging erodes margins to 24.8%; high 43.2x P/FCF amid negative incremental ROIC -75.5%.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Tonnage re-acceleration to flat YoY by mid-2026, validating moat-driven share gains from 35% spare capacity and 99% service superiority amid...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Old Dominion Freight Line generates durable free cash flow of $1,003.6M (18.3% margin) through a proprietary network of 261 service centers...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Recent Q4 2025 earnings beat EPS $1.09 vs $1.06 on +0.6% revenue surprise amid +9.89% stock reaction underscores relevance now as freight tr...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Prolonged freight recession eroding pricing power, with tonnage declines >10% deleveraging fixed costs (overhead +140bps to 75.2% OR).
Concern: Low
Technological disruption from low-cost entrants impairing network moat and 85.1% margins.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong: 60% independent board with financial expert Bradley R. Gabosch (43 years accounting, freight expertise); incentives t...
Recent Activity
2026-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.89%Old Dominion Freight Line reported Q4 2025 earnings per diluted share of $1.09, down 11.4% year-over-year.
2025-12-10SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.66%Debra S. King resigned from Old Dominion Freight Line's Board of Directors effective December 3, 2025.
2025-12-03SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.71%Old Dominion Freight Line reported November 2025 LTL operating metrics showing revenue per day decreased 4.4%.
2025-07-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.66%Old Dominion Freight Line reported Q2 2025 earnings per diluted share of $1.27, down 14.2% year-over-year.
2025-02-05SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.44%Old Dominion Freight Line reported Q4 2024 earnings per diluted share of $1.23, down 16.3% year-over-year.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$119
Bear
$1382
Base
$190
Bull
$216