OXY
Occidental Petroleum Corporation$46.07
Hold
Target $51.72
Report: Mar 08, 2026Energy • Oil & Gas Exploration & Production • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$46.07+12.3%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$39.78
(14% below current)
Fair Value
$51.72
(12% above current)
Stop Loss
$33.00
(28% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$67.45
52 Week Low$34.78
Avg. 3 Month Volume15.89M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin31.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin45.2%
LTM EBIT Margin20.0%
LTM Operating Margin18.7%
LTM ROA2.0%
LTM ROE4.6%
LTM ROIC4.6%
LTM ROCE5.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$64.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$84.5B
Shares Outstanding986.27M
Total Debt (MM)$22.40B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.97B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$20.43B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDAN/A
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-17.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-15.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-23.2%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-50.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$54.85
LTM EV/Revenue3.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit12.1x
LTM EV/EBIT19.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.5x
LTM P/E38.9x
LTM EV/FCFN/A
LTM P/FCFN/A
LTM P/TB0.8x
LTM P/B1.8x
Dividend Yield1.5%
Payout Ratio57.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $46.07 versus fair value $51.72 (12.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Closing of the OxyChem Sale The $9.7 billion cash infusion will allow Occidental to retire high-cost debt and reach its $15 billion principal debt target, likely triggering credit rating upgrades to full investment-grade status. Bear case centers on Lower-for-Longer Commodity Prices A sustained period of oil prices below $50 WTI would impair free cash flow and prevent the company from meeting its debt-reduction targets, potentially leading to a credit event. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Transitional horizon.
Bull Case
The $9.7 billion OxyChem sale provides immediate liquidity to reach the <$15 billion debt target; Permian breakeven prices of ~$38/bbl ensure free cash flow even in moderate price environments; Berkshire Hathaway's 32.7% stake provides a unique institutional backstop.
Bear Case
High liabilities-to-assets ratio of 58.7% leaves little room for operational error; $250 million in recurring annual well impairments suggests underlying asset quality issues; speculative multi-billion dollar DAC investments may not yield near-term returns.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Closing of the OxyChem Sale The $9.7 billion cash infusion will allow Occidental to retire high-cost debt and reach its $15 billion principa...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
The divestiture of OxyChem for $9.7 billion, representing roughly 15.8% of enterprise value, serves as a massive deleveraging catalyst that...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Occidental is relevant for analysis now because it is at the cusp of a structural transformation from a debt-laden hybrid to a lean, pure-pl...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-Longer Commodity Prices A sustained period of oil prices below $50 WTI would impair free cash flow and prevent the company from me...
Concern: Medium
The bear case assumes a severe global recession and a 'lower-for-longer' oil price environment. In this scenario, the terminal value is floo...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is rated as adequate. The governance outcome tree is currently stable: 1. Status Quo (Current plan executes) is the high-probabi...
Recent Activity
2025-10-10SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.32%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Considerations Occidental Petroleum Corporation ("Occidental") is providing the following summary of earnings considerations that management believes...
2025-10-02SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.31%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Exhibit 99.1 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. to Acquire Oxy Chem OMAHA and HOUSTON, October 2, 2025 – Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK) and Occidental (NYSE: OXY) today announced a definitive agreement for...
2025-07-15SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.28%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Considerations Occidental Petroleum Corporation ("Occidental") is providing the following summary of earnings considerations that management believes...
2025-05-08SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.23%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document PRESS RELEASE Occidental Announces 1st Quarter 2025 Results • Closed asset sales of $1.3 billion in the first quarter and repaid debt of $2.3 billion to date in 2025 • Strong operational...
2025-04-09market
+11.41%Market/Sector Move +11.41%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$41
Bear
$52
Base
$74
Bull
$46