PFE
Pfizer Inc.$27.05
Sell
Target $19.92
Report: Mar 13, 2026Healthcare • Drug Manufacturers - General • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$27.05-26.4%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$19.92
(26% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$28.31
52 Week Low$20.92
Avg. 3 Month Volume45.51M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin74.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin22.5%
LTM EBIT Margin12.0%
LTM Operating Margin12.0%
LTM ROA3.7%
LTM ROE8.7%
LTM ROIC6.8%
LTM ROCE4.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$159.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$223.3B
Shares Outstanding5.69B
Total Debt (MM)$64.80B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.14B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$63.65B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA4.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-1.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-14.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-29.2%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-37.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$27.50
LTM EV/Revenue3.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.8x
LTM EV/EBIT29.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA15.8x
LTM P/E20.5x
LTM EV/FCF24.6x
LTM P/FCF17.6x
LTM P/TB1.9x
LTM P/B1.8x
Dividend Yield6.1%
Payout Ratio126.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $27.05 versus fair value $19.92 (-26.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Obesity Pipeline Data Readouts (PF-3944) Successful Phase 2/3 data for the monthly GLP-1 candidate would validate the $10B Metsera acquisition and provide a credible growth engine to offset patent expirations. Bear case centers on Patent Cliff and Moat Erosion The loss of exclusivity for Eliquis, Ibrance, and Xtandi by 2027-2028 creates a $17B revenue hole that requires near-perfect execution in the pipeline to fill. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The obesity pipeline, led by the monthly GLP-1 candidate PF-3944, achieves 10-12% weight loss and captures significant market share; Seagen oncology assets accelerate to $10B in revenue by 2030; cost-savings programs deliver $7.7B in cumulative benefits, expanding operating margins toward 20%.
Bear Case
The 2026-2030 patent cliff erodes $17B in high-margin revenue; IRA price negotiations force 38% discounts on Eliquis; ROIC remains stuck below 8%, leading to continued destruction of shareholder value as the company overpays for pipeline assets.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Obesity Pipeline Data Readouts (PF-3944) Successful Phase 2/3 data for the monthly GLP-1 candidate would validate the $10B Metsera acquisiti...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Realization of $7.7B Cost-Savings Program Management's ability to hit the $1.5B manufacturing optimization target by 2027 is critical to pro...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Pfizer is at a critical juncture following the exit of activist Starboard Value and the integration of Seagen, making the next 12 months a '...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Patent Cliff and Moat Erosion The loss of exclusivity for Eliquis, Ibrance, and Xtandi by 2027-2028 creates a $17B revenue hole that require...
Concern: High
IRA Pricing Negotiations Medicare price negotiations for Eliquis starting in 2026 are expected to result in significant mandatory discounts,...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is mixed. While the board is highly independent and includes elite-level experience (e.g., Shantanu Narayen of Adobe...
Recent Activity
2025-10-01Analyst Target
+6.79%Firm: UBS Analyst: Tim Anderson Price Target: $28.00 Price When Posted: $27.16 Implied Upside: +3.1%
2025-08-05SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.18%Pfizer reports strong Q2 2025 results and raises full-year EPS guidance.
2024-05-01SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.09%Pfizer reported Q1 2024 revenues of $14.9 billion, down 20% year-over-year, and raised its 2024 adjusted EPS guidance to $2.15-$2.35.
2023-12-13SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.72%Pfizer receives all regulatory approvals and expects to close Seagen acquisition on December 14, 2023.
2023-05-20SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.38%Pfizer subsidiary completes $25 billion bond offering to finance Seagen acquisition.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$11
Bear
$18
Base
$22
Bull
$27