PG
The Procter & Gamble Company$156.01
Unclear
Target $147.66
Report: Mar 11, 2026Consumer Defensive • Household & Personal Products • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$156.01-5.4%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$113.58
(27% below current)
Fair Value
$147.66
(5% below current)
Stop Loss
$136.10
(13% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$174.80
52 Week Low$137.62
Avg. 3 Month Volume11.55M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin50.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin28.6%
LTM EBIT Margin25.1%
LTM Operating Margin23.6%
LTM ROA13.1%
LTM ROE31.3%
LTM ROIC41.6%
LTM ROCE23.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$335.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$361.5B
Shares Outstanding2.32B
Total Debt (MM)$36.64B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$10.82B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$25.81B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth1.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR2.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR5.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR5.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$167.67
LTM EV/Revenue4.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit8.4x
LTM EV/EBIT16.9x
LTM EV/EBITDA14.8x
LTM P/E20.4x
LTM EV/FCF24.3x
LTM P/FCF22.6x
LTM P/TB5.3x
LTM P/B6.3x
Dividend Yield2.9%
Payout Ratio60.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $156.01 versus fair value $147.66 (-5.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on National Rollout of Tide EVO: This fiber-spinning innovation has exceeded expectations in test markets and represents a higher-margin, premium category creator that could re-accelerate Fabric Care volumes. Bear case centers on Private Label Trade-Down: Inflation-strained consumers may permanently switch to retailer brands (Walmart/Costco), impairing P&G's premium volume growth. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Productivity savings of 270 basis points from Supply Chain 3.0 will drive operating margins toward 25% by 2028. Innovation-led volume recovery, spearheaded by the national rollout of Tide EVO and Pampers Prestige, will re-accelerate organic growth to the 3-4% range. The $15 billion annual capital return program provides a high floor for total shareholder returns.
Bear Case
Persistent consumer trade-down to private label brands in the U.S. will permanently impair volume growth, which has already turned negative (-1%). Rising commodity costs and potential $500 million tariff headwinds will neutralize productivity gains, leading to margin stagnation. High insider selling, totaling $83 million in the last 12 months, suggests management sees limited near-term upside.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
National Rollout of Tide EVO: This fiber-spinning innovation has exceeded expectations in test markets and represents a higher-margin, premi...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Supply Chain 3.0 Margin Realization: The transition to AI-driven autonomous supply chain systems is expected to deliver 100-150 basis points...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
The company is at a critical juncture following the January 1, 2026 CEO transition and the ongoing execution of a major restructuring plan t...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Private Label Trade-Down: Inflation-strained consumers may permanently switch to retailer brands (Walmart/Costco), impairing P&G's premium v...
Concern: Low
Tariff and Commodity Headwinds: New trade policies could impose a $500 million pre-tax headwind on raw materials and packaging.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, characterized by a 'promote from within' culture and a board with deep capital allocation expertise (e.g., Craig Arno...
Recent Activity
2022-07-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.18%P&G announced Q4 and FY 2022 financial results with sales and earnings growth.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$115
Bear
$15
Base
$159
Bull
$156