PGR
The Progressive Corporation$206.96
Hold
Target $261.13
Report: Mar 11, 2026Financial Services • Insurance - Property & Casualty • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$206.96+26.2%
Rec: HoldConviction: High
Entry Target
$200.87
(3% below current)
Fair Value
$261.13
(26% above current)
Stop Loss
$197.92
(4% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$289.96
52 Week Low$196.38
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.46M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin37.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin16.9%
LTM EBIT Margin16.5%
LTM Operating Margin16.5%
LTM ROA9.6%
LTM ROE35.5%
LTM ROIC11.6%
LTM ROCE12.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$116.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$122.9B
Shares Outstanding586.30M
Total Debt (MM)$6.90B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$138.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$6.76B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth16.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR20.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR114.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR153.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$230.38
LTM EV/Revenue1.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit3.8x
LTM EV/EBIT8.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.3x
LTM P/E10.3x
LTM EV/FCF7.1x
LTM P/FCF6.7x
LTM P/TB0.9x
LTM P/B3.8x
Dividend Yield7.0%
Payout Ratio72.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $206.96 versus fair value $261.13 (26.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Auto 9.0 model full rollout and AI claims photo-estimating scaling to 2.5x efficiency, validating moat and addressing severity fears while lifting margins to 16.5%. Bear case centers on Moat erosion via social inflation/bodily injury severity outpacing 2% premium hikes, compressing margins to peer 20% avg. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Half sizing and Long-Term (3+ Years) horizon.
Bull Case
Data moat widens via AI/Snapshot with ROIC 11.6% > peers 5.8%, revenue +16.3% to $87.7B, FCF $17.3B funds 8.6% yield; Florida reform and lighter CAT year sustain CR<90.
Bear Case
Insider sales $51.7M at $250 avg signal peak, social inflation erodes margins (SG&A +17.4%), autonomous vehicles disrupt auto premiums long-term.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Auto 9.0 model full rollout and AI claims photo-estimating scaling to 2.5x efficiency, validating moat and addressing severity fears while l...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Variable dividend increase post strong capital gen ($5B holdco cash post $13.50/share payout), signaling compounding confidence.
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Recent Q4 results showed CR<90 and 18.5% auto share amid peer softness, making now ideal to capture 26% upside before AI catalysts re-rate.
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion via social inflation/bodily injury severity outpacing 2% premium hikes, compressing margins to peer 20% avg.
Concern: Low
Autonomous vehicles disrupt personal auto premiums over 20Y as ESC adoption took 20Y for 45% penetration.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship adequate: independent chair, Tech Committee meets 5x/Yr overseeing AI/cyber, but insider sales $51.7M and undisclosed comp metri...
Recent Activity
2026-01-13Analyst Target
-5.28%Firm: Wells Fargo Price Target: $240.00 Price When Posted: $216.50 Implied Upside: +10.9%
2025-10-15SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.78%Progressive reported September 2025 results with 8% growth in net premiums written and 100.4 combined ratio.
2024-08-14SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.40%Progressive reported July 2024 insurance results with net premiums written of $6.4 billion and net income of $813.5 million.
2024-07-17SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.40%Progressive reported June 2024 insurance results with net premiums written of $5.75 billion and net income of $802.7 million.
2023-10-13SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.13%Progressive reported September 2023 insurance results with net premiums written of $4.90 billion and net income of $369.3 million.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$232
Bear
$280
Base
$319
Bull
$207