PHM
PulteGroup, Inc.$132.18
Unclear
Target $132.62
Report: Mar 07, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Residential Construction • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$132.18+0.3%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$102.02
(23% below current)
Fair Value
$132.62
(0% above current)
Stop Loss
$88.07
(33% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$144.50
52 Week Low$95.20
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.90M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin25.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin16.6%
LTM EBIT Margin15.9%
LTM Operating Margin16.4%
LTM ROA11.4%
LTM ROE15.9%
LTM ROIC14.6%
LTM ROCE15.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$24.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$24.9B
Shares Outstanding192.09M
Total Debt (MM)$2.28B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.84B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$432.44M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-5.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR0.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-8.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-3.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$141.22
LTM EV/Revenue1.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.7x
LTM EV/EBIT9.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.9x
LTM P/E12.0x
LTM EV/FCF14.0x
LTM P/FCF13.7x
LTM P/TB1.3x
LTM P/B1.9x
Dividend Yield0.8%
Payout Ratio9.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $132.18 versus fair value $132.62 (0.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Community count growth of 3-5% annually. Bear case centers on Moat erosion due to rising competitive intensity and incentive loads. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Chronic national housing undersupply of 1.5-2.1 million units provides a structural demand floor; captive mortgage platform enables rate buy-downs that smaller peers cannot match; aggressive share count reduction (CAGR -6.4%) drives outsized EPS growth.
Bear Case
Significant margin erosion as gross margins fell 270 bps to 26.4% in FY2025; land-cost inflation of 10% and rising sales incentives (8-10% of revenue) pressure profitability; heavy insider selling totaling $28M in the last 12 months suggests limited near-term upside.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Community count growth of 3-5% annually. This growth will offset volume declines in existing markets and validate the company's expansion st...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Stabilization or decline in mortgage rates. A more favorable rate environment would reduce the need for high sales incentives (currently 9.9...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
PulteGroup is relevant for analysis now as it navigates a critical transition toward a built-to-order model and divests its ICG manufacturin...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion due to rising competitive intensity and incentive loads. If peers successfully replicate Pulte's financing advantages or if inc...
Concern: Medium
Land-cost inflation and asset impairments. Sustained 10% land inflation could force further impairments, similar to the $126.9M in land-rela...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, though the recent governance friction and insider selling require monitoring. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1...
Recent Activity
2026-01-09Analyst Target
+7.34%Firm: RBC Capital Analyst: Mike Dahl Price Target: $111.00 Price When Posted: $123.16 Implied Downside: -9.9%
2025-07-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+11.52%PulteGroup reports Q2 2025 earnings of $3.03 per share with 6% decrease in closings
2025-04-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.36%PulteGroup reports Q1 2025 earnings of $2.57 per share with 6,583 homes closed
2024-10-22SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.24%PulteGroup reports Q3 2024 earnings of $3.35 per share with 12% increase in closings
2023-07-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.23%PulteGroup reports Q2 2023 earnings of $3.21 per share with 24% increase in net new orders
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade