PPL
PPL Corporation$37.57
Sell
Target $33.69
Report: Mar 08, 2026Utilities • Regulated Electric • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$37.57-10.3%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$33.69
(10% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$39.09
52 Week Low$32.50
Avg. 3 Month Volume8.79M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin23.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin40.9%
LTM EBIT Margin25.2%
LTM Operating Margin25.2%
LTM ROA2.7%
LTM ROE8.2%
LTM ROIC4.2%
LTM ROCE5.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$28.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$46.5B
Shares Outstanding740.12M
Total Debt (MM)$19.35B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.07B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$18.28B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA4.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth6.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR4.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR11.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR15.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$41.00
LTM EV/Revenue5.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit21.9x
LTM EV/EBIT20.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.6x
LTM P/E23.9x
LTM EV/FCF-33.2x
LTM P/FCF-20.2x
LTM P/TB0.7x
LTM P/B1.9x
Dividend Yield2.9%
Payout Ratio68.3%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $37.57 versus fair value $33.69 (-10.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Pennsylvania Rate Case Final Order Final approval of the electric distribution rate case will determine the company's ability to recover its massive grid investments and set the ROE for the next three years. Bear case centers on Regulatory Cost Recovery Denial The primary risk is that regulators in Pennsylvania or Kentucky deny full recovery of the 23 billion USD CapEx plan due to customer affordability concerns, leading to a permanent impairment of the ROIC and... Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The 25.2 GW data center pipeline in Pennsylvania and 8 GW in Kentucky provide unprecedented long-term demand visibility. The Blackstone joint venture for new gas-fired generation could unlock higher-than-regulated returns through strategic infrastructure development.
Bear Case
Negative free cash flow of 1.4 billion USD and a 130% Debt/Equity ratio leave no margin for error in regulatory rate cases. A 0% EPS hit rate over the last five years suggests management consistently overpromises on bottom-line delivery.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Pennsylvania Rate Case Final Order Final approval of the electric distribution rate case will determine the company's ability to recover its...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Blackstone JV Generation Announcement Specific contracts or construction starts for the natural gas generation joint venture would provide t...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
PPL is at a critical juncture as it rolls forward its 23 billion USD capital plan while simultaneously facing a 0/5 EPS hit rate and a 130%...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Regulatory Cost Recovery Denial The primary risk is that regulators in Pennsylvania or Kentucky deny full recovery of the 23 billion USD Cap...
Concern: Medium
Balance Sheet Overextension Rising leverage (130% Debt/Equity) and negative free cash flow (1.4 billion USD) could lead to a credit rating d...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is cautious. While the board is highly independent and features deep utility expertise (e.g., Arthur Beattie, former...
Recent Activity
2022-02-18SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.25%PPL Corporation reports 2021 earnings and completes $1 billion share repurchase program.
2021-03-18SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.96%PPL Corporation announces sale of U.K. utility business to National Grid and acquisition of Narragansett Electric in Rhode Island.
Valuation Table
8.1/10Decision Grade