PYPL
PayPal Holdings, Inc.$47.64
Buy
Target $83.49
Report: Mar 13, 2026Financial Services • Financial - Credit Services • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$47.64+75.3%
Rec: BuyConviction: High
Entry Target
$47.64
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$83.49
(75% above current)
Stop Loss
$38.46
(19% below current)
Position Size
Full
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$79.50
52 Week Low$38.46
Avg. 3 Month Volume23.75M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin41.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin21.9%
LTM EBIT Margin19.0%
LTM Operating Margin18.3%
LTM ROA6.5%
LTM ROE25.9%
LTM ROIC23.7%
LTM ROCE18.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$41.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$43.6B
Shares Outstanding932.00M
Total Debt (MM)$9.99B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$8.05B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.94B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth4.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR6.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR15.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR37.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$53.05
LTM EV/Revenue1.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit3.2x
LTM EV/EBIT6.9x
LTM EV/EBITDA6.0x
LTM P/E8.0x
LTM EV/FCF7.8x
LTM P/FCF7.5x
LTM P/TB0.6x
LTM P/B2.1x
Dividend Yield0.3%
Payout Ratio2.6%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $47.64 versus fair value $83.49 (75.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Biometric Checkout Adoption reaching 50% of the user base. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion in Branded Checkout. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Full sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
Venmo and BNPL are growing at 20% YoY, providing a massive growth engine that is currently obscured by core checkout noise; Aggressive buybacks at a 12.7% FCF yield are highly accretive to EPS; The new management team (Lores/Miller) has a proven track record of stabilizing complex tech giants.
Bear Case
Branded checkout is being permanently disintermediated by Apple Pay and Stripe; Transaction take rates are compressing (down 9bps to 1.65%) as the mix shifts to lower-margin unbranded processing; Stagnant active account growth suggests the platform has reached peak saturation.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Biometric Checkout Adoption reaching 50% of the user base. Currently at 36%, reaching the 50% target by end-2026 would significantly reduce...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Venmo ARPA (Average Revenue Per Account) expansion. Venmo revenue grew 20% in 2025; deeper product attachment (debit cards, Tap to Pay) is e...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
PayPal is relevant at this moment because the 20% price drop on February 3, 2026, has disconnected the stock price from its $6B annual free...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion in Branded Checkout. The mechanism is the continued loss of market share to Apple Pay and Stripe, which could turn the 1% growt...
Concern: Medium
Transaction Take Rate Compression. As the product mix shifts toward lower-priced unbranded processing (Braintree), the overall take rate may...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is one of 'Institutional Grade Stabilization.' While a proxy fight does not currently exist, the leadership reset cr...
Recent Activity
2026-02-03SEC Filing (8-K)
-20.31%PayPal appoints Enrique Lores as CEO and David Dorman as Board Chair
2025-07-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.66%PayPal reports Q2 2025 results with net revenues of $8.3 billion and raises full year guidance
2025-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-13.17%PayPal reports Q4 2024 results with 4% revenue growth and announces $15B share repurchase program.
2025-01-09Press Release
-5.21%Fv Bank Adds Paypal'S Pyusd Stablecoin To Direct Deposit And Outbound Payment Options With Real-Time Usd Conversion
2024-12-18Analyst Target
-5.95%Firm: Morgan Stanley Analyst: James Faucette Price Target: $90.00 Price When Posted: $85.45 Implied Upside: +5.3%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$75
Bear
$115
Bull
$48