RF
Regions Financial Corporation$27.05
Buy
Target $37.11
Report: Mar 13, 2026Financial Services • Banks - Regional • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$27.05+37.2%
Rec: BuyConviction: High
Entry Target
$27.05
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$37.11
(37% above current)
Stop Loss
$17.74
(34% below current)
Position Size
Full
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$31.53
52 Week Low$17.74
Avg. 3 Month Volume15.11M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin38.7%
LTM EBIT Margin37.5%
LTM Operating Margin38.9%
LTM ROA1.3%
LTM ROE10.9%
LTM ROIC1.8%
LTM ROCE1.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$22.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$16.5B
Shares Outstanding874.00M
Total Debt (MM)$4.88B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$10.91B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-6.02B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-2.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth7.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR0.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-4.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR0.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$30.00
LTM EV/Revenue2.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit2.3x
LTM EV/EBIT6.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA6.1x
LTM P/E10.9x
LTM EV/FCF8.2x
LTM P/FCF11.1x
LTM P/TB0.1x
LTM P/B1.2x
Dividend Yield3.9%
Payout Ratio44.6%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $27.05 versus fair value $37.11 (37.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Execution of $3B Share Repurchase Program This program represents 16.7% of Enterprise Value and will provide a persistent bid for the shares while driving double-digit EPS growth through share count reduction. Bear case centers on Credit Deterioration in Office CRE and Transportation A spike in net charge-offs beyond the current 59 basis points could force an increase in the allowance for credit losses, directly hitting net income and potentially pausing buybacks. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Full sizing and Long-Term (3+ Years) horizon.
Bull Case
Regions maintains a peer-leading low-cost deposit base of 1.39% and a 10.8% CET1 ratio, supporting a $3B buyback program that could retire 16% of the company. Record fee income in Wealth Management and Treasury Management provides a diversified, non-interest-sensitive revenue stream.
Bear Case
Deteriorating asset quality in the office CRE and transportation sectors has pushed net charge-offs to 59 basis points. Ongoing patent litigation with USAA and regulatory pressure on fee income could compress margins and lead to earnings volatility.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Execution of $3B Share Repurchase Program This program represents 16.7% of Enterprise Value and will provide a persistent bid for the shares...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: High
Completion of Core Technology Modernization The transition from legacy COBOL to cloud-based architecture is expected to drive significant ef...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Regions is relevant now because the stock is trading at a rare discount following a Q4 2025 earnings miss, just as the bank initiates a mass...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Credit Deterioration in Office CRE and Transportation A spike in net charge-offs beyond the current 59 basis points could force an increase...
Concern: Low
USAA Patent Infringement Litigation An adverse ruling in the USAA mobile deposit patent case could result in significant damages and require...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, characterized by disciplined capital returns and a robust risk framework. While the USAA litigation and derivative la...
Recent Activity
2025-07-18SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.12%Regions Financial reported second quarter 2025 earnings of $534 million, or $0.59 per diluted share.
2023-10-20SEC Filing (8-K)
-12.38%Regions Financial reported third quarter 2023 earnings of $465 million, or $0.49 per diluted share.
2023-05-02SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.67%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) a2q23investormeetingmate Investor Information May - June 2023 Exhibit 99.1 2 Table of contents Topic Page # Profile and Strategy 3-10 Asset / Liability Management 11-18 Fees & Expenses 19-25 Business Segment Highlights...
2022-10-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.28%Regions Financial reported third quarter 2022 earnings of $404 million, or $0.43 per diluted share.
2022-03-05SEC Filing (DEFA14A)
-5.97%Regions Financial Corporation filed a definitive proxy statement for its annual meeting.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$35
Bear
$44
Base
$51
Bull
$27