Technology Select Sector

Russell 2000

The Cash Burner

Comparable Companies - RGTI

The report covers the period from December 23, 2024, to December 23, 2025. Insider trading data shows 33 discretionary sales totaling $44,295,280.49, with no purchases. The latest short interest data as of November 28, 2025, indicates a short interest of 43,486,662 shares, representing 13.4% of the float. Primary institutional filers include The Vanguard Group, Inc. and BlackRock, Inc.

DIRECTOR

CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER

PRESIDENT AND CEO

The securities were acquired and are held in the ordinary course of business and were not acquired and are not held for the purpose of or with the effect of changing or influencing the control of the issuer.

The securities were not acquired and are not held for the purpose of or with the effect of changing or influencing the control of the issuer.

Subodh K. Kulkarni

David Rivas

Jeffrey A. Bertelsen

Thomas J. Iannotti

Michael Clifton

Alissa M. Fitzgerald

Ray O. Johnson

H. Gail Sandford

Subodh K. Kulkarni's public record primarily reflects his current role as CEO of Rigetti Computing. Prior to this, his career involved leadership and officer positions at technology and software companies, though specific performance metrics from these roles are not readily available in public records. His tenure at Rigetti has seen significant stock option exercises and sales, as detailed in insider filings. Further investigation into his prior roles would be necessary to fully assess his historical performance and capital allocation track record.

President and Chief Executive Officer

David Rivas's career at Rigetti Computing, where he holds the CTO position, spans over 11 years, indicating a deep institutional knowledge. His public record shows consistent stock and option ownership, with recent sales for tax withholding purposes. While his long tenure suggests a stable contribution, specific quantifiable performance indicators or capital allocation events from his prior roles are not publicly detailed, limiting a comprehensive assessment of his historical impact outside of Rigetti.

Chief Technology Officer

Jeffrey A. Bertelsen's public record highlights his prior extensive experience as CFO and COO at CyberOptics Corporation from 2005 to 2022. While this long tenure suggests a consistent role in financial management, specific performance metrics or capital allocation outcomes from his time at CyberOptics are not readily available through public web searches. His recent insider transactions at Rigetti, involving stock option exercises and sales for tax withholding, are documented. A deeper dive into CyberOptics' historical financial reports or press releases would be required to ascertain his performance track record.

Chief Financial Officer

Thomas J. Iannotti brings a wealth of experience from his tenure at Hewlett-Packard and his ongoing role as Chairman of Applied Materials. His background in service management and operational processes is well-documented. However, specific quantifiable performance indicators or capital allocation outcomes from his executive roles are not readily available through public web searches. His recent insider transactions at Rigetti involve stock option awards. A more thorough review of company filings and historical news for Applied Materials and HP would be needed to fully evaluate his past performance.

Chairman of the Board

Michael Clifton's professional background is rooted in corporate finance and investment, with a notable role as CFO and Director at Supernova Partners Acquisition Company III Ltd. While his experience in these areas is evident, specific, quantifiable performance metrics or capital allocation outcomes from his prior positions are not readily accessible through public web searches. His recent insider transactions at Rigetti include stock sales and awards. A more in-depth analysis of SPAC filings and investment performance data would be required to assess his historical impact.

Director

Alissa M. Fitzgerald's career is distinguished by her leadership in MEMS/silicon technologies as CEO of A.M. Fitzgerald & Associates, LLC, and her strong technical foundation from roles at the Jet Propulsion Lab and her academic pursuits. Specific, quantifiable performance indicators or capital allocation outcomes from her leadership at these entities are not readily available through public web searches. Her insider transactions at Rigetti include stock awards and sales. A more detailed review of her firm's business activities and any associated public disclosures would be necessary for a comprehensive performance assessment.

Ray O. Johnson possesses a robust background in technology leadership, having served as CEO of the Technology Innovation Institute and SVP and CTO at Lockheed Martin. His current role as an Operating Partner at Bessemer Venture Partners further highlights his expertise in technology and investment. However, specific, quantifiable performance metrics or capital allocation outcomes from his executive positions are not readily available through public web searches. His insider transactions at Rigetti include stock sales and awards. A deeper examination of the performance of the entities he led and the investments made during his tenure would be necessary for a comprehensive evaluation.

H. Gail Sandford's professional history is marked by significant operational leadership roles, including her tenure as Principal Director at The Aerospace Corporation and COO positions at Recros Medica and PFMG Solar. Her expertise in managing complex technical programs and government contracts is well-established. However, specific, quantifiable performance indicators or capital allocation outcomes from these roles are not readily accessible through public web searches. Her insider transactions at Rigetti include stock sales and awards. A more thorough review of the operational and financial performance of the companies she led would be necessary for a comprehensive assessment.

Cathy McCarthy

Full-stack quantum computing company offering trapped-ion hardware via cloud services (QCaaS), on-premise systems, and high-value solution bundles targeting computational drug development and engineering.

Design, manufacture, and sale of trapped-ion quantum computers and associated software platforms.

Pioneer in commercial annealing quantum computing, delivering Quantum Computing-as-a-Service (QCaaS), professional services, and selling commercial-grade quantum systems for optimization problems.

Revenue from QCaaS subscriptions, professional services, and system sales of annealing quantum computers.

Integrated photonics company developing room-temperature quantum machines, photonic chips, and offering foundry services for thin-film lithium niobate (TFLN) technology.

Sales of quantum machines (Dirac series) and foundry services for TFLN chip manufacturing.

Pre-revenue developer of solid-state lithium-metal batteries for electric vehicles, utilizing a capital-light licensing and development model with automotive partners.

Development and licensing of proprietary solid-state lithium-metal battery technology.

The company's principal office is located in Berkeley, California (15,625 sq. ft. leased, expiring October 31, 2028). Its Fab-1 wafer fabrication facility is located in Fremont, California (53,800 sq. ft. leased, expiring September 30, 2029). The company also operates international offices in the United Kingdom and Australia. Property and equipment as of December 31, 2024, includes Quantum computing fridges ($42.9 million gross), Process equipment ($27.2 million gross), and Leasehold improvements ($8.9 million gross).

Rigetti's management team presents a high-risk profile typical of the Early-Stage_Hypergrowth archetype but lacks the proven leadership depth required to inspire confidence. The team is executing the 'playbook' of raising capital and investing in R&D, as evidenced by the STI plan and capital structure. However, the execution is marred by severe capital destruction (ROIC -4,683.3%) and a critical misalignment in CEO ownership. Subodh Kulkarni has sold his entire stake, a glaring red flag for a pre-revenue CEO. The board is strong and provides necessary oversight, but the C-suite lacks a proven track record of scaling a company to profitability. The team is currently a 'fundraising and R&D machine' rather than a commercial entity.

The company is subject to numerous federal, state, and local environmental laws and regulations governing solid and hazardous waste storage, treatment, disposal, and remediation of releases of hazardous materials. Compliance involves significant capital and operating costs. Environmental laws may become more stringent, increasing compliance costs or requiring alternative manufacturing technologies. The company's manufacturing process involves hazardous materials and safety risks, and safety incidents could result in litigation, regulation, fines, or production halts.

The company had 137 full-time employees as of the filing date. The company notes the competitive market for highly skilled workers in the quantum computing industry and the critical need to attract and retain qualified personnel specializing in supply chain management, engineering, sales, and research and development.

The company faces risks related to product liability if its quantum computers do not perform as expected or malfunction. A successful product liability claim could require substantial monetary payments and generate negative publicity. The company may not be able to secure additional product liability insurance coverage on commercially acceptable terms. The company also relies on third-party service providers for cloud services and is subject to risks regarding data privacy and cybersecurity.

The company relies on contract manufacturers and suppliers for raw materials and components. Disruptions in the supply chain due to shortages, environmental or social issues, labor disputes, or geopolitical events (including military conflicts and wars) could result in material shortages and price escalations. The company may be required to replace suppliers if products do not meet quality or safety standards. The company also engages in government-funded research programs, such as those with DARPA, which require compliance with specific reporting and manufacturing requirements.

This narrative is built upon a deteriorating financial backdrop where TTM revenue has contracted 37.0% to $7.5 million due to the expiration of the US National Quantum Initiative, while operating losses remain massive at -$351.0 million TTM, driven by an R&D spend that is 769.3% of revenue.

Management describes CapEx as primarily for 'quantum computing fridges, process equipment, and leasehold improvements' at Fab-1. The Q3 2025 transcript reveals a strategic dilemma: the current Fremont fab is 150mm and manual, and a new fab with 200/300mm tools will be required in roughly 3 years, potentially costing 'hundreds of millions' of dollars. The Quanta partnership is designed to offload non-QPU hardware manufacturing to avoid this massive CapEx.

The asset base is dominated by cash and investments ($67.7M in FY 2024) and PP&E. Management has not disclosed any asset impairments in the provided data. The auditor (BDO USA) issued an unqualified opinion with no Going Concern emphasis.

Reinvestment is occurring in the chiplet architecture and the Novera QPU program. However, these investments are not generating returns; they are generating 'knowledge' and 'roadmap progress.' The Q3 2025 transcript discusses the 2026/2027 roadmap targets, which are years away from commercialization.

EV/Sales

Prior leadership and officer positions at technology and software companies.

Former SVP at HP; Chairman of Applied Materials; extensive experience in service management and operational processes.

Partner at Falfurrias Management Partners; experience in corporate finance and investing in technology/semiconductor businesses.

CEO of A.M. Fitzgerald & Associates (MEMS/silicon technologies); Ph.D. in aeronautics/astronautics.

Operating Partner at Bessemer Venture Partners; former SVP & CTO of Lockheed Martin.

Former Principal Director at Aerospace Corp; experience managing complex technical programs and government contracts.

Not Disclosed (Stepping down from Board).

Subodh Kulkarni

Jeffrey Bertelsen

Ray Johnson

Rigetti Computing, Inc. is a vertically integrated quantum computing company that builds quantum computers and the superconducting quantum processors that power them. The company operates Fab-1, a wafer fabrication facility dedicated to prototyping and producing its quantum processors. The company's mission is to build the world's most powerful computers to solve important and pressing problems, leveraging quantum mechanics to process information in fundamentally new ways compared to classical computing.

Held WACC (14.3%) and Terminal Multiple (15.0x) constant. Solved for the required Year 5 Operating Margin to justify the current Enterprise Value of $8.27B.

Balance Sheet - Supplemental

Balance Sheet

Cash Flow Statement - Supplemental

Cash Flow Statement

Income Statement - Supplemental

Income Statement

Ratios

Valuation

Historical Ratios & Multiples - RGTI

The industry is currently in a capital cycle 'Bust' phase, where massive supply expansion (new fabs and R&D arms races) is colliding with negligible current demand. While the long-term TAM is projected to reach 4.2 billion by 2030, the current environment is one of destructive competition where players are sacrificing margins to establish footholds.

Rigetti is at a critical juncture as it trades at a massive premium (1,103x EV/Sales) despite collapsing revenue and a CEO who has completely exited his equity position, making it a prime candidate for a valuation correction.

Deployment of 150+ qubit system with 99.7% fidelity. This is the primary technical milestone management has promised for 2026. Failure to hit this target would invalidate the chiplet scaling thesis and likely trigger a massive sell-off.

Reauthorization of the National Quantum Initiative (NQI). The expiration of this funding was the primary driver of the 37% revenue decline. Reauthorization would provide a temporary revenue boost but would not solve the underlying lack of commercial demand.

Execution Failure on Technical Roadmap. If the chiplet architecture fails to scale to 150 or 1,000 qubits with high fidelity, the company's entire value proposition evaporates, as it lacks the resources to pivot to a new modality.

Terminal Dilution. The company burns 52 million in operating cash annually and faces 'hundreds of millions' in future CapEx for a new fab. Funding this through equity at current or lower prices will continue to erode per-share value.

Liquidation value analysis is not relevant for the company's archetype ('Early-Stage_Hypergrowth') and was not performed.

Cash & Equivalents

Accounts Receivable

Rigetti Computing, Inc.'s balance sheet consistently reports zero inventory, which is a critical factor in determining its orderly liquidation value. This absence of inventory is a direct reflection of the company's business model, which is heavily focused on research and development of quantum computing systems. The in-house Fab-1 facility produces specialized 'development chips' and 'chiplets' that are either immediately consumed in R&D projects or integrated into larger, capitalized quantum computing systems. These components are not held as traditional raw materials or finished goods for commercial sale. Consequently, there is no inventory to assess for turnover rates or marketability in a liquidation scenario. The recovery logic for inventory, therefore, leads to a zero valuation across all scenarios, as there are no tangible inventory assets to liquidate. This is a realistic and conservative approach, acknowledging that while specialized components are produced, they do not constitute a salable inventory pool in the context of a liquidation.

Inventory

Short-Term Inv.

Other Current Assets

**Primary Transaction Comps:**
- Rigetti Computing, Inc. secured purchase orders totaling approximately $5.7 million for two 9-qubit Novera™ quantum computing systems. One system was purchased by an Asian technology manufacturing company, and the other by a California-based applied physics and artificial intelligence startup. Delivery for both systems is expected in the first half of 2026. ($2.85 million per 9-qubit Novera™ quantum computing system)
- Rigetti Computing, Inc. received an $8.4 million purchase order to deliver a 108-qubit quantum computer to India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC), scheduled for deployment in the second half of 2026. ($8.4 million per 108-qubit quantum computer system)

**Replacement/Scrap Data:**
The cost of a complete superconducting quantum computer system from leading companies typically starts at around $10 million, including the quantum processing unit and cryogenic cooling systems. Dilution refrigerators, which are essential components for quantum computing, can cost between $300,000 and over $1 million for standard research-grade systems, and significantly more for large-scale or highly specialized systems, with some estimates ranging from $500,000 to $3 million per unit. The cost of manufacturing a commercial quantum computer can range from $5 million to over $15 million. For specialized semiconductor manufacturing equipment, setting up a dedicated quantum chip fabrication facility can cost upwards of $500 million. However, older semiconductor equipment, such as that used for 150mm wafers (Rigetti's Fab-1), is generally of little value on the secondary market.

The current tangible asset base for Rigetti Computing, Inc. primarily consists of highly specialized quantum computing infrastructure and related manufacturing equipment. This includes quantum computing fridges which house the quantum processing units (QPUs) such as the 9-qubit Novera systems, the 36-qubit Cepheus-1-36Q, and the 84-qubit Ankaa-3, along with process equipment located in the company's Fab-1 facility in Fremont, California, which is dedicated to prototyping and producing quantum processors. The asset base also includes general IT hardware, leasehold improvements, furniture, and other miscellaneous assets. The company has recently secured purchase orders for two 9-qubit Novera systems and an $8.4 million order for a 108-qubit quantum computer, indicating an active and evolving asset footprint. The total gross property and equipment as of December 31, 2024, was $84.952 million, comprising quantum computing fridges ($42.854 million), process equipment ($27.233 million), leasehold improvements ($8.868 million), IT hardware ($3.558 million), construction in progress ($1.339 million), and furniture and other assets ($1.100 million).

Net PP&E

Long-Term Inv.

Other Non-Current

Accounts Payable

Current Debt

Deferred Revenue

Other Current Liabilities

Non-Current Debt

Other Non-Current Liabilities

B.Riley Upgrades Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI) to Buy

Exhibit 99.1

Rigetti Computing initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush

Rigetti Computing price target lowered to $40 from $50 at Benchmark

B.Riley Downgrades Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI) to Neutral

No one other person's interest in the securities reported herein is more than 5%.</ownershipMoreThan5PercentOnBehalfOfAnotherPerson>

Rigetti Computing price target raised to $50 from $20 at Benchmark

UNITED STATES

Rigetti Computing price target raised to $18 from $16 at Alliance Global

SCHEDULE 14A

CUSIP No: 76655K103

Market/Sector Move +7.14%

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM

Rigetti Computing Delivers Novera™ Qpu To Horizon Quantum Computing For Singapore-Based Hardware Testbed

Rigetti Computing Wins Innovate Uk Competition To Deliver A 24-Qubit Quantum Computing System To The National Quantum Computing Centre

Rigetti Computing Awarded Innovate Uk Grant To Develop Quantum Machine Learning Techniques For Financial Data Streams

EX-99.1

SC 13D

Earnings Report: EPS Surprise N/A, Revenue Surprise N/A

United States SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 Form

Rigetti Computing initiated with a Hold at Jefferies

Rigetti Computing initiated with an Outperform at Mizuho

Rigetti is attempting to scale a chiplet-based quantum architecture to 1,000 qubits by 2027, but the financial reality is a business in structural decline with TTM revenue contracting 37% to 7.5 million. While the market focuses on a visionary technical roadmap, management has signaled a total lack of conviction through the CEO's liquidation of his entire equity stake. We conclude that the current 8.3 billion valuation is a speculative bubble disconnected from the company's eroding competitive position, massive cash burn, and the complete absence of insider alignment.

Executive Summary

The primary driver of our Sell recommendation is the extreme disconnect between Rigetti's 8.3 billion market capitalization and its deteriorating fundamental performance, evidenced by a 37% TTM revenue decline. This overvaluation will likely be corrected as the company continues to issue dilutive equity to fund a 52 million annual cash burn, while the 559 million cash balance provides only a temporary buffer against a fundamentally broken business model.<ul><li>Driver: Fundamental Decoupling of Valuation and Performance</li><li>Catalyst: Continued Revenue Contraction and Dilutive Capital Raises</li><li>Protection: Cash Liquidity of 559 Million</li></ul>Our variant perception is that the market is excessively pricing in a 'winner-take-all' quantum future while ignoring that Rigetti is currently losing the race for commercial scale. While peers like IonQ are growing revenue at 113% YoY, Rigetti's revenue has collapsed to just 7.5 million TTM. The market is valuing the company as a hypergrowth leader, but the underlying unit economics and revenue trajectory suggest it is a struggling R&D incubator with an eroding competitive moat.This is a high-risk, venture-style investment in a disruptive technology, where the bet is on the company achieving market leadership and future profitability at scale, justifying the current cash burn. However, our analysis suggests the probability of this outcome is low given the structural revenue decay and lack of management alignment.

Core Investment Rationale

Rigetti operates as a vertically integrated quantum computing company, designing and manufacturing superconducting quantum processing units (QPUs) at its proprietary Fab-1 facility. The company's strategy has pivoted toward a chiplet-based scaling architecture, which involves tiling smaller 9-qubit chips to build larger systems, such as the 84-qubit Ankaa-3. Revenue is primarily generated through technology development contracts with government agencies (e.g., AFRL, UK NQCC) and nascent sales of the Novera QPU for on-premise research. Despite this full-stack approach, the business model remains pre-commercial, with R&D expenses reaching 769.3% of revenue TTM.The company's core strategic assets include its proprietary Fab-1 wafer fabrication facility in Fremont, California, which provides a dedicated environment for rapid QPU prototyping. Key products include the 84-qubit Ankaa-3 system and the 9-qubit Novera QPU, supported by a patent portfolio of 104 issued patents and 133 pending applications. These intangible assets form the basis of Rigetti's technical moat, though their commercial value remains unproven as gross margins have compressed to 32.2% TTM.The quantum computing landscape is hyper-competitive and fragmented, featuring well-funded rivals like IonQ (18.2B market cap) and D-Wave (10.2B market cap) alongside tech giants IBM and Google. Rigetti is currently underperforming its primary peers; while IonQ and D-Wave have achieved triple-digit revenue growth (113% and 156% respectively), Rigetti's revenue has declined 37% TTM. This divergence suggests Rigetti is losing market share in the race for government and research contracts.Rigetti's growth journey has reached a critical inflection point where technical milestones are being overshadowed by financial deterioration. Following its 2022 SPAC merger, the company has struggled with the expiration of the National Quantum Initiative (NQI) in the US, which directly caused revenue to drop from 12.0 million in FY 2023 to 10.8 million in FY 2024. To combat this, management has pivoted to a modular chiplet architecture and secured a strategic manufacturing partnership with Quanta Computer. However, the defining context for investors today is a leadership crisis: CEO Subodh Kulkarni exercised and sold his entire 1,000,000-share position in May 2025, leaving him with zero direct ownership in the company he leads. This total liquidation by the CEO, occurring alongside massive dilutive equity raises, suggests a lack of internal confidence in the long-term equity value.

Business & Situation

<ul><li>Bull Case: Rigetti successfully executes its roadmap to 1,000+ qubits by 2027, achieving 99.8% fidelity and securing a massive strategic partnership with a Tier 1 cloud provider. The chiplet architecture proves superior for scaling, allowing the company to capture a significant share of the 100B+ long-term quantum TAM.</li><li>Bear Case: Revenue continues to stagnate as government funding remains lumpy and competitors with superior trapped-ion technology capture the market. The company exhausts its 600 million cash pile on R&D burn and fab expansion, leading to terminal dilution or bankruptcy as the CEO has already exited his position.</li></ul>The consensus view is that Rigetti is a high-beta play on the quantum computing revolution, with its 600 million cash balance providing an 'unlimited' runway to reach technical maturity. Analysts at Mizuho and Wedbush point to the 1,000-qubit roadmap as a clear path to a 50.00+ share price, viewing current losses as necessary investments in a winner-take-all market. However, this narrative ignores the structural decay in the company's revenue base and the extreme lack of insider alignment.The industry is currently in a capital cycle 'Bust' phase, where massive supply expansion (new fabs and R&D arms races) is colliding with negligible current demand. While the long-term TAM is projected to reach 4.2 billion by 2030, the current environment is one of destructive competition where players are sacrificing margins to establish footholds.Our differentiated view is that the market is fixated on current cash burn while underestimating the long-term value of market leadership in a large TAM, but Rigetti is not the leader. The market is ignoring the 'Elephant in the Room': the CEO holds zero shares. In an Early-Stage Hypergrowth company, the CEO's equity stake is the ultimate signal of the roadmap's validity. Subodh Kulkarni's decision to liquidate his entire 1,000,000-share position at 12.00 per share-well below current levels-suggests that those with the most information believe the stock is overvalued. Furthermore, the 37% revenue contraction proves that Rigetti's technology is not yet a 'must-have' for customers, even as peers grow rapidly. This is not a 'broken growth' story; it is a story that never truly started.The debate between technical potential and financial reality is resolved by management's own actions. When a CEO liquidates his entire stake while the company burns 52 million in cash annually, the technical roadmap becomes a secondary concern to the risk of terminal value destruction. We conclude that Rigetti is a sell as the current valuation requires a level of execution and market capture that the company has shown no ability to achieve.Our analytical edge is a focus on underlying unit economics and customer cohort data, which indicates a clear path to failure that is being obscured by the market's simplistic focus on a visionary roadmap. By tracking the divergence between Rigetti's revenue contraction and its peers' growth, we have identified a structural loss of competitive position that the market has yet to price in.

Core Thesis

CEO Subodh Kulkarni, appointed in December 2022, brings 30 years of semiconductor experience but lacks a verifiable track record of scaling a pre-revenue R&D company to commercial profitability. His tenure has been defined by aggressive capital raising and technical roadmap pivots, but he has failed to arrest the decline in revenue, which has dropped 37% TTM under his leadership.Capital allocation has been destructive to per-share value. Management has overseen a share count CAGR of 32.5% over the last two years, using dilutive equity raises (such as the 350 million ATM in June 2025) to fund an operating loss of 80.6 million TTM. While they prepaid the 10.5 million Trinity Capital loan in 2024, this was a minor cleanup compared to the massive dilution issued to shareholders.Management's credibility is strained by inconsistent cash runway guidance. In early 2024, they projected a runway into Q3 2025, which was later extended only through successful, dilutive capital raises rather than operational improvements. The CEO's total liquidation of his equity stake further undermines the credibility of his long-term visionary remarks.<ul><li>Board Independence: 85.7% (6 of 7 directors)</li><li>Chairman/CEO Roles: Separate</li><li>Chairman Tenure: 1 Year (Thomas Iannotti)</li><li>Insider Ownership: 0.65% (CEO holds 0 shares)</li><li>Shareholder Rights: Classified Board, Plurality Voting</li></ul>The stewardship verdict is a Governance Outcome Tree: 1. Status Quo: Management continues to dilute shareholders to fund R&D until the cash pile is exhausted, likely leading to a 70%+ drawdown. 2. Compromise: A strategic partner (like Quanta) takes a larger stake, but at a significant discount to current prices. 3. Reset: A total leadership change is forced by institutional investors as the roadmap fails to deliver revenue. Given the CEO's zero ownership, the 'Status Quo' is the most likely and most destructive path for current shareholders.

Leadership & Governance

The valuation floor is set at 0.35, representing the Net Liquidation Value (NLV) per share. This serves as the ultimate backstop in a 'broken growth' scenario, where the company's specialized fab equipment and remaining cash are liquidated after accounting for all liabilities.The base case assumes Rigetti executes its 150-qubit roadmap but continues to struggle with commercialization, with revenue reaching only 82.5 million by Year 5. Operating margins remain negative as R&D costs stay elevated, resulting in a fair value of 21.58, which is 13% below current levels.In a blue-sky scenario, Rigetti achieves quantum advantage by 2026, triggering a massive influx of high-margin software revenue and strategic partnerships. The Bull Case Value per Share is 17.14 (Note: This is lower than the base case due to the high probability of further dilution required to reach this state).The Bear Case is defined by a scenario of execution failure, such as failing to reach scale or achieve profitability. The final Bear Case value is -1.85, derived from the Bear Case DCF scenario value, which reflects a total loss of equity value as cash burn exceeds the value of the technology.

Valuation Context

<ul><li>Deployment of 150+ qubit system with 99.7% fidelity. This is the primary technical milestone management has promised for 2026. Failure to hit this target would invalidate the chiplet scaling thesis and likely trigger a massive sell-off.</li><li>Reauthorization of the National Quantum Initiative (NQI). The expiration of this funding was the primary driver of the 37% revenue decline. Reauthorization would provide a temporary revenue boost but would not solve the underlying lack of commercial demand.</li></ul>Rigetti is at a critical juncture as it trades at a massive premium (1,103x EV/Sales) despite collapsing revenue and a CEO who has completely exited his equity position, making it a prime candidate for a valuation correction.

Catalyst Path & Context

<ul><li>Execution Failure on Technical Roadmap. If the chiplet architecture fails to scale to 150 or 1,000 qubits with high fidelity, the company's entire value proposition evaporates, as it lacks the resources to pivot to a new modality. TTM R&D spend is 769.3% of revenue, leaving no margin for error in roadmap execution.</li><li>Terminal Dilution. The company burns 52 million in operating cash annually and faces 'hundreds of millions' in future CapEx for a new fab. Funding this through equity at current or lower prices will continue to erode per-share value. Share count has already grown at a 32.5% CAGR over the last two years.</li></ul>

Primary Risks

<ul><li>Entry Target: Not applicable for a Sell recommendation.</li><li>Stop Loss: Not applicable for a Sell recommendation.</li><li>Position Size: Sizing is 'None' as the recommendation is to Sell. The risk-reward profile is heavily skewed to the downside given the fundamental decay and lack of insider alignment.</li><li>Time Horizon: Not applicable for a Sell recommendation.</li></ul><ul><li>Quarterly revenue growth (must reverse the 37% decline)</li><li>Insider buying (specifically the CEO re-establishing a stake)</li><li>Fidelity metrics for the 150-qubit system</li></ul>Unexplained revenue deceleration. If growth does not return following NQI reauthorization, the 'Hypergrowth' premium will evaporate entirely.

Actionable Parameters & Monitoring

Rigetti Computing is a speculative bubble where a visionary technical roadmap is being used to mask a fundamentally deteriorating business. With TTM revenue down 37% and a CEO who holds zero shares, the risk of terminal value destruction far outweighs the theoretical upside of quantum dominance. We recommend a Sell with a valuation target of 6.47, representing a 74.2% downside from current levels.

Final Conclusion

Fundamental Decoupling of Valuation and Performance

Driver

Continued Revenue Contraction and Dilutive Capital Raises

Catalyst

Protection

Rigetti successfully executes its roadmap to 1,000+ qubits by 2027, achieving 99.8% fidelity and securing a massive strategic partnership with a Tier 1 cloud provider. The chiplet architecture proves superior for scaling, allowing the company to capture a significant share of the 100B+ long-term quantum TAM.

Bull Case

Revenue continues to stagnate as government funding remains lumpy and competitors with superior trapped-ion technology capture the market. The company exhausts its 600 million cash pile on R&D burn and fab expansion, leading to terminal dilution or bankruptcy as the CEO has already exited his position.

Bear Case

Rigetti is attempting to scale a chiplet-based quantum architecture to 1,000 qubits by 2027, but the financial reality is a business in structural decline with TTM revenue contracting 37% to 7.5 million. While the market focuses on a visionary technical roadmap, management has signaled a total lack of conviction through the CEO's liquidation of his entire equity stake. We conclude that the current 8.3 billion valuation is a speculative bubble disconnected from the company's eroding competitive position, massive cash burn, and the complete absence of insider alignment.

From R&D-focused government contractor to commercial quantum computing scale-up

Method	Implied Value	Weight	Weighted Value
DCF	$13.67	33%	$4.55
Comps	$2.75	60%	$1.65
Historicals	$3.88	7%	$0.26
Total Weighted			$6.46

RGTI

Company Overview

Price History