TMUS
T-Mobile US, Inc.$219.71
Sell
Target $114.26
Report: Mar 07, 2026Communication Services • Telecommunications Services • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$219.71-48.0%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$114.26
(48% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$272.60
52 Week Low$181.36
Avg. 3 Month Volume6.11M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin62.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin35.7%
LTM EBIT Margin20.4%
LTM Operating Margin20.4%
LTM ROA5.1%
LTM ROE18.2%
LTM ROIC9.7%
LTM ROCE9.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$231.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$344.6B
Shares Outstanding1.13B
Total Debt (MM)$118.74B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$5.60B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$113.14B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth8.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR3.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR16.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR67.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$257.42
LTM EV/Revenue3.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit6.2x
LTM EV/EBIT19.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA10.9x
LTM P/E21.1x
LTM EV/FCF17.1x
LTM P/FCF11.5x
LTM P/TB2.2x
LTM P/B3.9x
Dividend Yield1.7%
Payout Ratio37.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $219.71 versus fair value $114.26 (-48.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Realization of Margin Compression: The market currently expects digital efficiencies to expand margins, but a failure to reverse the 1.9 percentage point contraction in operating margins will force a re-valuation. Bear case centers on Asset-Specific Risk: Technological Obsolescence of Spectrum. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
T-Mobile dominates the 5G era with superior mid-band spectrum and is successfully pivoting to a national ISP through FWA and fiber JVs. Strong free cash flow of 20.2 billion supports an aggressive 5 billion accelerated buyback program for Q1 2026.
Bear Case
Operating margins contracted 190 basis points to 20.4% in FY2025 despite 8.5% revenue growth, proving limited operating leverage. Negative incremental ROIC of -3.6% and massive insider selling of 1.71 billion suggest the stock is fundamentally overvalued.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Realization of Margin Compression: The market currently expects digital efficiencies to expand margins, but a failure to reverse the 1.9 per...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Slowing Postpaid Account Additions: If net account additions fall below the 900,000 to 1,000,000 guidance for 2026, the growth narrative wil...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
T-Mobile is relevant for analysis at this moment because it is trading near all-time highs despite a leadership transition and massive insid...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Asset-Specific Risk: Technological Obsolescence of Spectrum. If competitors acquire superior mid-band assets or if 6G technology renders cur...
Concern: High
Regulatory Risk: Data Privacy and Cybersecurity. Recurring large-scale data breaches could lead to irreversible regulatory changes or massiv...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is mixed due to the heavy influence of Deutsche Telekom. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: DT con...
Recent Activity
2026-02-11SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.07%T-Mobile raises multi-year growth outlook, increasing targets for broadband customers and financial performance through 2027.
2025-07-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.80%T-Mobile delivers record Q2 2025 with best-ever total postpaid and postpaid phone net additions, raising full-year guidance.
2025-04-25SEC Filing (8-K)
-11.22%T-Mobile achieves highest ever Q1 2025 postpaid gross and net additions, raising full-year financial guidance.
2025-04-04Market Movement
-7.38%Market/Sector Move -7.38%
2025-01-29SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.34%T-Mobile reported Q4 2024 and full-year 2024 results with industry-leading customer growth and financial performance.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade