TRMB
Trimble Inc.$68.41
Sell
Target $45.42
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Hardware, Equipment & Parts • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$68.41-33.6%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$45.42
(34% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$87.50
52 Week Low$52.91
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.07M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin69.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin21.8%
LTM EBIT Margin16.3%
LTM Operating Margin16.5%
LTM ROA4.7%
LTM ROE7.5%
LTM ROIC22.0%
LTM ROCE7.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$15.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$16.4B
Shares Outstanding237.10M
Total Debt (MM)$1.39B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$253.40M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.14B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-4.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-1.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-3.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-4.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$95.00
LTM EV/Revenue4.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit6.6x
LTM EV/EBIT28.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA20.9x
LTM P/E36.0x
LTM EV/FCF45.4x
LTM P/FCF42.3x
LTM P/TB4.8x
LTM P/B2.6x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $68.41 versus fair value $45.42 (-33.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Deceleration in Field Systems ARR growth. Bear case centers on AI Moat Expansion and Monetization. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Bulls argue that the 79% software mix and record 69.1% gross margins provide a durable floor for valuation, while the $2.39 billion ARR (up 6% YoY) and AI-driven productivity gains in construction will eventually re-accelerate organic growth.
Bear Case
Bears point to the structural decline in revenue (-4.3% TTM), the compression of ROIC from 30.2% to 22.0%, and the negative tangible book value as evidence of a business that is overvalued and lacks downside protection.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Deceleration in Field Systems ARR growth. As the low-hanging fruit of software conversions is picked, the underlying hardware decline will b...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Margin compression from model conversions and stranded costs. The transition to subscription models in Transportation and Field Systems intr...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Trimble is relevant for analysis now due to the convergence of deteriorating fundamentals, active institutional selling, and a high-profile...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
AI Moat Expansion and Monetization. If Trimble successfully monetizes its 'trillions in construction data' through a consumption-based AI mo...
Concern: High
Activist-led Strategic Sale. JANA Partners could force a sale of the company to a private equity buyer or a strategic peer at a premium to t...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is complicated by the active proxy friction with JANA Partners. We outline the following Governance Outcome Tree: 1....
Recent Activity
2026-02-11SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.44%Trimble reports Q4 and full-year 2025 results with record ARR of $2.39B and initiates 2026 guidance.
2024-11-06SEC Filing (8-K)
+17.88%Trimble reports Q3 2024 results with record ARR of $2.19B and raises full-year guidance.
2024-05-03SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.92%Trimble announces Q1 2024 results with record recurring revenue and gross margins
2023-11-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-13.09%Trimble reports Q3 2023 results with record ARR of $1.94B and raises full-year guidance.
2023-09-28SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.50%Trimble announces joint venture with AGCO to form global leader in mixed fleet precision agriculture
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$40
Bear
$53
Base
$62
Bull
$68