UHS
Universal Health Services, Inc.$206.88
Unclear
Target $207.84
Report: Mar 07, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Care Facilities • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$206.88+0.5%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$159.88
(23% below current)
Fair Value
$207.84
(0% above current)
Stop Loss
$157.59
(24% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$246.33
52 Week Low$152.33
Avg. 3 Month Volume780K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin43.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin15.7%
LTM EBIT Margin12.1%
LTM Operating Margin11.5%
LTM ROA9.8%
LTM ROE21.1%
LTM ROIC15.7%
LTM ROCE17.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$10.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$16.0B
Shares Outstanding62.02M
Total Debt (MM)$5.17B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$137.80M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$5.03B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth9.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR9.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR19.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR36.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$245.67
LTM EV/Revenue0.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit2.1x
LTM EV/EBIT7.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA5.9x
LTM P/E7.3x
LTM EV/FCF19.4x
LTM P/FCF13.3x
LTM P/TB0.9x
LTM P/B1.5x
Dividend Yield0.4%
Payout Ratio3.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $206.88 versus fair value $207.84 (0.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Opening of Palm Beach Gardens de novo hospital. Bear case centers on Regulatory Moat Erosion. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Aggressive share repurchases provide a constant bid for the stock and accelerate EPS growth; new facility openings in Florida and California will drive volume growth of 2-3%; AI-enabled cost efficiencies are expected to offset labor inflation and sustain 11.5% operating margins.
Bear Case
Regulatory headwinds in California and exchange-volume declines could compress margins by 50-100 basis points; long-term reductions in Medicaid supplemental payments (estimated at 420-470 million dollars annually by 2032) threaten the terminal value; insider selling of 1.46 million dollars suggests management sees limited near-term upside.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Opening of Palm Beach Gardens de novo hospital. This 156-bed facility represents a significant capacity addition in a high-growth market and...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Acceleration of Behavioral Outpatient Expansion. The company plans to add at least 10 new freestanding centers in 2026, diversifying the pay...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Universal Health Services is at a critical juncture as it concludes a major capital investment cycle and faces the first full year of impact...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Regulatory Moat Erosion. New staffing regulations in California and potential reductions in Medicaid supplemental payments could permanently...
Concern: Low
Exchange Volume Decline. A projected 25-30% drop in exchange volume could lead to a 75 million dollar revenue headwind and increased bad deb...
Concern: Medium
Universal Health Services is led by capable stewards who have demonstrated a clear commitment to per-share value creation. While the combine...
Recent Activity
2026-02-26SEC Filing (8-K)
-11.44%Universal Health Services, Inc. announced 2025 fourth quarter and full year financial results and 2026 operating results forecast.
2026-01-07Analyst Target
-6.02%Firm: UBS Price Target: $245.00 Price When Posted: $214.97 Implied Upside: +14.0%
2025-07-29SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.08%Universal Health Services reports Q2 2025 financial results and increases 2025 guidance
2025-04-18SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-10.15%BlackRock, Inc. files Schedule 13G/A reporting 7.2% beneficial ownership of Universal Health Services Class B Stock
2025-04-09Market Movement
+5.65%Market/Sector Move +5.65%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade