VRSK
Verisk Analytics, Inc.$215.47
Unclear
Target $197.67
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Consulting Services • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$215.47-8.3%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$152.05
(29% below current)
Fair Value
$197.67
(8% below current)
Stop Loss
$164.60
(24% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$322.92
52 Week Low$164.60
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.98M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin69.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin54.3%
LTM EBIT Margin43.7%
LTM Operating Margin43.7%
LTM ROA16.3%
LTM ROE324.3%
LTM ROIC30.3%
LTM ROCE36.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$26.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$28.9B
Shares Outstanding139.05M
Total Debt (MM)$4.90B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.18B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$2.72B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth6.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR7.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR0.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR2.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$231.56
LTM EV/Revenue9.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit13.5x
LTM EV/EBIT21.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA17.3x
LTM P/E28.8x
LTM EV/FCF24.2x
LTM P/FCF22.0x
LTM P/TB6.6x
LTM P/B84.7x
Dividend Yield0.9%
Payout Ratio27.6%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $215.47 versus fair value $197.67 (-8.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Completion of the 1.5 billion USD Accelerated Share Repurchase program. Bear case centers on Moat erosion due to technological disruption. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Verisk's 84% subscription revenue provides exceptional visibility, while AI-driven tools like ExactGen are expected to drive 5-6% organic growth. The company's 1.58x FCF-to-Net Income conversion supports a robust 1.19 billion USD in annual free cash flow.
Bear Case
Transactional revenue is highly sensitive to weather patterns, as seen in the 6.5% decline in FY 2025. Additionally, the 1.65 billion USD debt increase has pushed interest expense to 170.9 million USD, potentially compressing net margins if deleveraging is delayed.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Completion of the 1.5 billion USD Accelerated Share Repurchase program. This will significantly reduce the share count and provide a technic...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Normalization of weather-driven transactional revenue. A return to historical averages for severe weather will validate the durability of th...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Verisk is relevant now because it has just entered a massive 1.5 billion USD share repurchase program following a period of stock underperfo...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion due to technological disruption. New low-cost competitors or 'vibe coding' could potentially replicate Verisk's data insights,...
Concern: Low
Leverage-driven earnings volatility. The 1.65 billion USD debt increase has raised interest expense, which could compress net margins if ope...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is strong. The board is highly independent and features deep insurance expertise, such as Sabra Purtill (former AIG...
Recent Activity
2026-02-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.27%Verisk enters $1.5 billion accelerated share repurchase agreement
2025-10-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.40%Verisk reported Q3 2025 results with 5.9% revenue growth and maintained full-year guidance.
2025-07-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.32%Verisk acquires AccuLynx for $2.35 billion
2025-04-04Market Movement
-6.59%Market/Sector Move -6.59%
2024-07-31SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.48%Verisk reported strong Q2 2024 financial results with 6.2% revenue growth and 50.7% increase in income from continuing operations.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade