VTR
Ventas, Inc.$84.96
Sell
Target $48.45
Report: Mar 08, 2026Real Estate • REIT - Healthcare Facilities • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$84.96-43.0%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$48.45
(43% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$88.37
52 Week Low$60.15
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.02M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin41.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin38.2%
LTM EBIT Margin14.6%
LTM Operating Margin14.0%
LTM ROA0.9%
LTM ROE2.1%
LTM ROIC2.2%
LTM ROCE3.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$38.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$51.3B
Shares Outstanding474.97M
Total Debt (MM)$13.22B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$786.14M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$12.43B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA5.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth18.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR12.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR11.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$90.33
LTM EV/Revenue8.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit21.2x
LTM EV/EBIT60.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA23.0x
LTM P/E154.5x
LTM EV/FCF-47.5x
LTM P/FCF-36.0x
LTM P/TB1.5x
LTM P/B3.1x
Dividend Yield2.3%
Payout Ratio336.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $84.96 versus fair value $48.45 (-43.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Deceleration in SHOP Same-Store NOI Growth If NOI growth falls from the current 15% toward the high single digits, the market's growth-premium valuation will likely collapse as the dilution becomes the primary narrative. Bear case centers on Equity Dilution and Per-Share Value Erosion The mechanism of issuing stock to fund growth ($5.1B issued) prevents the demographic tailwind from ever reaching the bottom line on a per-share basis. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The Silver Tsunami demographic tailwind is undeniable, with the 80+ population growing by 900,000 annually, creating a secular demand floor for SHOP assets. Management has successfully executed on occupancy gains, moving from 83% to 86% in 2025, with incremental margins of 50% providing a path to significant earnings leverage.
Bear Case
The stock is fundamentally overvalued, trading at 23.7x EV/EBITDA compared to a peer median of 17.2x, despite having inferior margins and ROIC. Shareholder value is being systematically eroded by dilution, with the share count growing 8.7% in 2025 alone to fund acquisitions that have yet to produce positive free cash flow.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Deceleration in SHOP Same-Store NOI Growth If NOI growth falls from the current 15% toward the high single digits, the market's growth-premi...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Increased Activist Pressure Land & Buildings or another activist could move from board representation to a full proxy fight or a demand for...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Ventas is at a critical juncture where its 'growth at any cost' strategy is meeting the reality of high interest rates and persistent labor...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Equity Dilution and Per-Share Value Erosion The mechanism of issuing stock to fund growth ($5.1B issued) prevents the demographic tailwind f...
Concern: Medium
Interest Coverage and Refinancing Risk With 64% of debt maturing within five years and interest coverage at only 1.4x, any spike in rates or...
Concern: Medium
The governance environment is currently a 'Compromise' state following the Land & Buildings activism. The outcome tree is as follows: 1. Sta...
Recent Activity
2025-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.56%Ventas, Inc. reported strong third quarter 2025 results with double-digit growth in senior housing operating portfolio (SHOP) and increased full year guidance.
2025-05-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.48%Ventas, Inc. reported first quarter 2025 results with strong SHOP performance and reaffirmed full year guidance.
2025-02-13SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.34%Ventas reported 2024 full year results with 7% normalized FFO growth and declared 7% dividend increase.
2024-05-02SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.50%Ventas reported first quarter 2024 results with 15% SHOP same-store cash NOI growth and updated full year guidance.
2023-08-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.82%Ventas reported strong second quarter 2023 results with 7.9% total company NOI growth and 14% SHOP same-store cash NOI growth.
Valuation Table
8.2/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$21
Bear
$48
Base
$94
Bull
$85